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Vol. 35. Issue 8.
Pages 470-474 (September 2011)
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Vol. 35. Issue 8.
Pages 470-474 (September 2011)
Original article
DOI: 10.1016/j.acuroe.2011.03.011
Estimation of the projections of incidence rates, prevalence and mortality due to prostate cancer in Aragon (Spain)
Estimación de las proyecciones de las tasas de incidencia, prevalencia y mortalidad por cáncer de próstata en Aragón (España)
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M. Bernala,
Corresponding author
mibernal@unizar.es

Corresponding author.
, F.J. Romerob, D.L.B. Souzaa, F.J. Gómez-Bernald, G.J. Gómez-Bernalc
a Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
b Departamento de Urología, Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
c Departamento de Medicina y Psiquiatría, Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
d Médico de Familia, Centro de Salud de Epila, Zaragoza, Spain
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Figures (2)
Tables (3)
Table 1. Projections in prostate cancer: 1998–2022.
Table 2. Prevalences in different years after diagnosis.
Table 3. Trend of the projections of incidence, prevalence and mortality rates.
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Abstract
Objective

The purpose of this study was to project prostate cancer prevalence, incidence rates and mortality over a 15-year period going from 2008 to 2022 for the Aragon region of Spain.

Methods

The projections were calculated using the MIAMOD PROGRAM. All-cause mortality due to prostate cancer for the baseline period of 1998–2007 was obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics.

Results

The prostate cancer incidence rates for the period 2008–2022 per 100,000 persons are projected to decrease from 47.57 to 26.68/100,000 (adjusted rates 24.9–12.93). Mortality will decrease from 21.89 to 11.73 (adjusted rates 10.89–5.83) and prevalence from 277.07 cases/100,000 per year to 125.09 (adjusted rates 165.54–63.41).

Conclusions

These projections indicate that the prostate cancer incidence and its mortality rate will decrease in Aragon (Spain).

Keywords:
Prostate cancer
Cancer projections
Spain
Resumen
Objetivo

El propósito de este estudio es proyectar la prevalencia de cáncer de próstata, las tasas de incidencia y la mortalidad durante el periodo de 15 años desde 2008 hasta 2022 para la región de Aragón, en España.

Métodos

Mediante el programa MIAMOD se estimaron las proyecciones. La mortalidad por todas las causas y para el cáncer de próstata en el periodo de referencia, de 1998 a 2007, se obtuvieron del Instituto Nacional de Estadística.

Resultados

Durante el periodo 2008 a 2022 las tasas de incidencia de cáncer de próstata por cada 100.000 habitantes disminuirán de 47,57 a 26,68 por 100.000 habitantes (tasas ajustadas 24,9 a 12,93) La mortalidad se reducirá de 21,89 a 11,73 (tasas ajustadas 10,89 a 5,83) y la prevalencia de 277,07 casos por 100.000 habitantes a 125,09 (tasas ajustadas 165,54 a 63,41).

Conclusiones

Estas proyecciones indican que la incidencia del cáncer de próstata y la mortalidad por la enfermedad disminuirá en Aragón (España).

Palabras clave:
Cancer de próstata
Proyecciones de cáncer
España

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