Original article—alimentary tract
Clinical Course in Crohn’s Disease: Results of a Norwegian Population-Based Ten-Year Follow-Up Study

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Background & Aims: Most studies concerning the clinical course in CD are retrospective or based on selected patient groups. Our aim was to assess the course of CD in a prospective population-based follow-up study and to identify possible prognostic risk factors for complications on the basis of information obtained at initial diagnosis. Methods: From 1990–1994, a population-based cohort of 843 new cases of inflammatory bowel disease was recruited in South-Eastern Norway. The cohort was systematically followed up at 1, 5, and 10 years after diagnosis. Results: Of 237 patients classified as CD, 197 completed the 10 years of follow-up, 18 died, and 22 were lost to follow-up. The cumulative relapse rate during the first 10 years was 90% (95% confidence interval, 86%–94%), and the cumulative probability of surgery was 37.9% (95% confidence interval, 31.4%–44.4%). Terminal ileal location (P < .001), stricturing (P = .004), penetrating behavior (P < .001), and age younger than 40 years (P = .03) at diagnosis were independent risk factors for subsequent surgery. A total of 53% (n = 105) of the patients had developed stricturing or penetrating disease at 10 years. A large proportion of patients (44%) were in clinical remission during the last 5 years of follow-up. Conclusions: The prognosis for CD seems better than previously reported. The probability of surgery was low, and fewer than expected developed complicated disease behavior. Nevertheless, the cumulative relapse rate of 90% and the finding of prognostic risk factors for subsequent surgery might call for attention to early effective medical treatment strategies.

Section snippets

Material and Methods

From January 1, 1990 to December 31, 1993 all newly diagnosed patients with IBD or possible IBD were prospectively recorded in 4 geographically well-defined areas in South-Eastern Norway (Inflammatory Bowel South-Eastern Norway [IBSEN] study).

On January 1, 1992 the total study population was 966,427. All general practitioners in these areas (1236) were invited to participate in the study, and at each of the 15 participating hospitals, a senior gastroenterologist was made responsible for the

Follow-up Cohort

A complete 10-year follow-up was achieved in 197 of 237 patients (83.1%). The median follow-up time for these patients was 124 months (range, 108–144 months). Eighteen patients (7.6%) had died (median follow-up, 28 months; range, 0–83 months), and 22 patients (9.3%) were lost to follow-up (median follow-up, 53 months; range, 0–100 months). Of the patients lost to follow-up, 9 were not willing to participate further in the study, 7 had moved out of the area, 4 were untraceable, and 2 had other

Discussion

This 10-year follow-up study of newly diagnosed CD patients demonstrated the clinical phenotype, course of disease, and results of treatment in a population-based cohort. In addition, we have described potential risk factors for subsequent complications on the basis of clinical and epidemiologic variables at the time of the initial diagnosis.

This is one of few prospective population-based studies in this field,4, 16 and it has other methodologic advantages. First, the patients were uniformly

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    The following members of the Inflammatory Bowel South-Eastern Norway (IBSEN) Study Group of gastroenterologists are thanked for participating in this study: Magne Henriksen, Østfold Hospital, Moss; Erling Aadland and Tomm Bernklev Aker, University Hospital, Oslo; Stein Dahler, Notodden Hospital, Øystein Kjellevold, Blefjell Hospital, and Finn Strøm, Lovisenberg Diakonale Hospital, Oslo. For help with statistical analysis we thank Milada Småstuen, Department of Biological Statistics, Rikshospitalet University Hospital.

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