Investigating the relationship between cross-national suicide rates and COVID-19 first and second waves spread across the world: An exploratory study

Abstract

Introduction

COVID-19 spreads between people in close contact. Social isolation, which is linked with increased suicide risk, prevents COVID-19 from spreading. Suicide and COVID-19 may therefore represent two antagonistic phenomena. Specifically, we tested whether previous cross-national suicide rates inversely correlate with COVID-19 cases and deaths across countries.

Material and methods

We ran unadjusted bivariate correlations between the most updated (2016) cross-national Age-Standardised suicide rates and COVID-19 cumulative cases and deaths (as of: 30/08/2020, 11/10/2020 and 30/05/2021) across countries; and we controlled for WHO Income group, WHO region, suicide data quality, and urbanicity.

Results

Suicide rates negatively correlated with COVID-19 cumulative cases up to 30/08/2020 (r = −0.14, P = .064) and up to 11/10/2020 at an almost significant level (r = −0.149, P = .050) across 174 countries. As of 11/10/2020 this correlation became significant when controlling for WHO region (r = −0.17, P = .028), data quality (r = −0.181, P = .017) and urbanicity (r = −0.172, P = .039); and as of 30/08/2020 when adjusting for WHO region (r = −0.15, P = .047) and data quality a (r = −0.16, P = .036). No significant correlations between suicide rates and COVID-19 deaths were found.

Conclusions

There seems to be an inverse correlation between previous cross-national suicide rates and COVID-19 cumulative cases across countries. Suicide and COVID-19 appear to behave, to some degree, as antagonistic phenomena, which challenges their prevention.

Resumen

Introducción

La COVID-19 se contagia entre personas en contacto estrecho. El aislamiento social, asociado a mayor riesgo de suicidio, previene la propagación de COVID-19. El suicidio y la COVID-19 podrían representar 2 fenómenos antagónicos. Investigamos si las tasas de suicidio transnacionales correlacionan inversamente con los casos y fallecimientos por COVID-19 por países.

Material y métodos

Analizamos las correlaciones bivariadas no controladas entre las tasas de suicidio transnacionales estandarizadas por edad más actualizadas (2016) y los casos y fallecimientos por COVID-19 (hasta: 30/08/2020, 11/10/2020, 30/05/2021) por países; y ajustadas por riqueza y región de la OMS, calidad de los datos de suicidio y urbanicidad.

Resultados

Las tasas de suicidio correlacionaron negativamente con los casos de COVID-19 hasta el 30/08/2020 (r = −0,14, p = 0,064) y hasta el 11/10/2020 a un nivel casi significativo (r = −0,149, p = 0,050) en 174 países. Hasta el 11/10/2020 esta correlación se convirtió en significativa al controlar por región de la OMS (r = −0,17, p = 0,028), calidad de los datos (r = −0,181, p = 0,017) y urbanicidad (r = −0,172, p = 0,039); y hasta el 30/08/2020 al ajustar por región de la OMS (r = −0,15, p = 0,047) y calidad de los datos (r = −0,16, p = 0,036). No se encontraron correlaciones significativas entre tasas de suicidio y fallecimientos por COVID-19.

Conclusiones

Parece existir una correlación inversa entre las tasas de suicidio transnacionales previas y los casos por COVID-19 por países. El suicidio y la COVID-19 parecen comportarse, hasta cierto punto, como 2 fenómenos antagónicos, lo que supone un desafío para su prevención.