The use of evolutionary graphs of PubMed publications in recent years on a topic of interest is a common sight in many session presentations, courses, and conferences in our field. This graph is often used to identify a topic as “trendy,” “on the rise,” or “of increasing interest.” It is atypical to display this graph with a flat or downward curve. The purpose of this letter is to question the use of this type of graph and provide a critical perspective on its interpretation.
The publication of articles in electronic databases has grown exponentially in recent years,1 primarily due to the introduction of new journals and electronic supplements to existing journals.
To analyse this situation, a PubMed search was conducted on November 16, 2023, for four MeSH terms representative of our specialty: “Fracture,” “Orthopaedics,” “Traumatology,” and “Bone.” Searches were conducted for different years (Table 1), and a graphical representation and calculation of variability between different time points were performed (Fig. 1).
Absolute annual number of publications in PubMed for each term and its percentage growth compared to the year 2000.
| Year | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| Fracture | |||||||||
| No. of publications | 4.911 | 7.153 | 10.583 | 14.644 | 15.508 | 16.676 | 19.135 | 20.967 | 20.826 |
| % growth | +46% | +115% | +198% | +216% | +240% | +290% | +327% | +324% | |
| Orthopaedics | |||||||||
| No. of publications | 5.938 | 8.956 | 13.800 | 28.374 | 35.188 | 38.094 | 45.856 | 50.386 | 51.070 |
| % growth | +51% | +132% | +378% | +493% | +542% | +672% | +749% | +760% | |
| Traumatology | |||||||||
| No. of publications | 409 | 841 | 1.336 | 3.275 | 3.514 | 3.927 | 4.939 | 5.860 | 5.831 |
| % growth | 106% | 227% | 701% | 759% | 860% | 1108% | 1333% | 1326% | |
| Bone | |||||||||
| No. of publications | 23.887 | 31.945 | 43.985 | 55.297 | 57.073 | 59.290 | 64.917 | 68.375 | 64.063 |
| % growth | 34% | 84% | 131% | 139% | 148% | 172% | 186% | 168% | |
| Media | 0% | 59% | 140% | 352% | 402% | 447% | 560% | 649% | 644% |
The number of publications in our field has increased sixfold (644%) over the last 20 years, with an almost exponential upward trend. The average annual increase in the number of publications is 30%, reaching up to 100% in the last five years.
In this context, any PubMed publication curve with a positive slope, despite representing an increase in the absolute number of publications, could represent a topic that is not in vogue compared to the rest, or even a topic with decreasing interest. For this reason, interpretation of this type of data should be performed with caution, evaluating the numbers in relation to the total number of articles published at the time of the analysis.
Level of evidenceLevel of evidence V.
Ethical considerationsThere is no animal, human, or patient data in this work. Approval by an ethics committee is not required, provided a letter to the editor is submitted.
FundingThis research did not receive any specific grants from public sector agencies, the commercial sector, or non-profit organisations.
Conflict of interestsThe authors declare no conflicts of interest for the preparation of this article.
