Buscar en
Cuadernos de Economía
Toda la web
Inicio Cuadernos de Economía Los ciclos económicos internacionales: Antecedentes y revisión de la literatur...
Journal Information
Vol. 34. Issue 95.
Pages 73-84 (May - August 2011)
Share
Share
Download PDF
More article options
Vol. 34. Issue 95.
Pages 73-84 (May - August 2011)
Full text access
Los ciclos económicos internacionales: Antecedentes y revisión de la literatura
International Business Cycles: Background and literature review
Visits
13284
Sonia de Lucas Santosa, M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguezb,
, Inmaculada Álvarez Ayusoc, José Luis Cendejas Buenod
a Departamento de Economía Aplicada (Unidad de Estadística), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, España
b Departamento de Economía Aplicada II, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos de Madrid, Madrid, España
c Departamento de Teoría Económica: Análisis Económico e Historia Económica, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, España
d Departamento de Teoría Económica e Historia, Universidad CEU San Pablo, Madrid, España
This item has received
Article information
Resumen

El estudio de los ciclos económicos ha sido de gran interés desde su análisis formal a principios del siglo XX, no obstante no se ha producido un consenso entre los expertos en cuanto a su definición y a las técnicas de estimación de los mismos. Es por ello, que en este trabajo se presenta una revisión sobre la definición de los ciclos económicos, así como de sus características y la medición de las mismas. Por otro lado, se repasan las referencias sobre las técnicas empleadas para la extracción de los mismos, especialmente centrándonos en la estimación de los ciclos económicos internacionales en la que se emplean técnicas multivariantes complejas, sobre las cuales se ha abierto una vía de investigación con un interés cada vez mayor.

Palabras clave:
Ciclo económico internacional
Filtros lineales
Técnicas multivariantes
Abstract

The study of business cycles has been of great interest since its formal analysis in the early twentieth century; however there has been no consensus among experts about its definition and techniques for estimating them. Therefore, in this paper we present a review of the definition of business cycles and of their characteristics and approaches. On the other hand, we review the references on the techniques used to extract business cycles, especially focusing on the estimation of international business cycles employing multivariate techniques which have opened a research line with a growing interest.

Keywords:
International business cycles
Lineal filters
Multivariate techniques
Full text is only aviable in PDF
Bibliografía
[Angelini et al., 2001]
Angelini, E., Henry, J., Mestre, R., 2001. Diffusion index-based inflation forecasts for the euro area. WP No 61. European Central Bank.
[Aoki, 1993]
M. Aoki.
Interactions of real GDP business cycles in a three-country time-series model.
Journal of Forecasting, 12 (1993), pp. 331-344
[Artis et al., 2001]
M. Artis, A. Banerjee, M. Marcellino.
Factor forecasts for the UK mimeo.
European University Institute, (2001),
[Artis et al., 2004]
M. Artis, M. Marcellino, T. Proietti.
Dating business cycles: a methodological contribution with an application to the euro area”.
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 66 (2004), pp. 537-565
[Backus and Kehoe, 1992]
D.K. Backus, P.J. Kehoe.
International evidence of the historical properties of business cycles.
American Economic Review. American Economic Association, 82 (1992), pp. 864-888
[Baxter and King, 1995]
M. Baxter, R. King.
Measuring business cycles approximate band-pass filter for economic time series.
NBER working paper series, no. 5022, Massachusetts, (1995),
[Baxter and Kouparitsas, 2005]
M. Baxter, M.A. Kouparitsas.
Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis.
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, 52 (2005), pp. 113-157
[Böwer and Guillemineau, 2006]
Böwer, U., Guillemineau, C., 2006. Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro-zone countries. ECB Working Paper 587.
[Bovi, 2005]
M. Bovi.
Economic clubs and European commitments. evidence from the international business cycles.
International Journal of Applied Economics and Quantitative Studies, 2 (2005), pp. 101-122
[Boyán, 2004]
J. Boyán.
Asymmetric cycles. Review of Economic Studies.
Blackwell Publishing 73, (2004),
[Bry and Boschan, 1971]
G. Bry, C. Boschan.
Cyclical a nalysis of time series: selected procedures and computer programs.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Massachusetts Ave, (1971),
[Burns and Mitchell, 1946]
A.F. Burns, W.C. Mitchell.
Measuring business cycles.
NBER, (1946),
[Camacho and Sancho, 2003]
M. Camacho, E.I. Sancho.
Spanish diffusion indexes.
Spanish Economic Review, 5 (2003), pp. 173-203
[Camacho et al., 2005]
M. Camacho, G. Pérez-Quiros, L. Saiz.
Do European business cylcles look like one?.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32 (2005), pp. 2165-2190
[Camacho et al., 2006]
M. Camacho, G. Perez-Quiros, L. Saiz.
Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?.
Journal Of Economic Dynamics And Control, 30 (2006), pp. 1687-1706
[Cancelo and Uriz, 2001]
Cancelo, J.R, Uriz, P., 2001. A New approach to polarization and conflict. Regime switching models for indicators derived from cyclical chronologies, with an application to international cyclical synchronization. Working Papers. Instituto Estudios Económicos Galicia.
[Canova, 1998]
F. Canova.
Detrending and business cycles facts.
Journal Of Monetary Economics, 41 (1998), pp. 475-512
[Cendejas et al., 2006]
Cendejas, J.L., Del Hoyo, J.L, Llorente, J.G., Monjas, M., Rivero, C., 2006. Ciclo económico y convergencia real en la Unión Europea. Documentos De Trabajo (Fundación Bbva). N.° 10.
[Chauvet, 1998]
M. Chauvet.
An econometric characterization of business cycle dynamics with factor structure and regime switching.
International Economic Review, 39 (1998), pp. 969-996
[Cotis and Coppel, 2005]
J.P. Cotis, J. Coppel.
Business cycle dynamics in OECD countries: evidence, causes and policy implications.
The changing nature of business cycles, Reserve Bank Of Australia Economic Conference, (2005),
[Cristobal and Quilis, 1998]
A. Cristobal, E.M. Quilis.
Análisis del ciclo económico mediante modelos de índices dinámicos: aplicación a los Índices de la Producción Industrial.
Boletín Trimestral de Coyuntura 68, 73–93,
[Darvas and Szapáry, 2004]
Darvas, Z., Szapáry, G., 2004. Business cycle synchronization in the enlarged Eu: comovements in the new and old members. Central Bank Of Hungary Working Paper No. 2004/1.
[De Haan et al., 2008]
J. De Haan, R. Inklaar, R. Jong-A-Pin.
Will business cycle in the Euro area converge?.
A critical survey of empirical research, Journal of Economic Surveys, 2 (2008), pp. 234-273
[De Long and Summers, 1986]
B. De Long, L. Summers.
The changing cyclical variability of economic activity in the United States.
The American Business cycle: continuity and change. Il, pp. 679-719
[De Lucas et al., 2009a]
S. De Lucas, I. Álvarez, M.J. Delgado.
Análisis de las relaciones entre los ciclos económicos internacionales.
Cuadernos De Economía, (2009), pp. 32
[De Lucas et al., 2009b]
S. De Lucas, I. Álvarez, M.J. Delgado.
Measuring international reference-cycles.
Funcas Working Paper 2009-468, Fundación De Las Cajas De Ahorros, (2009),
[Dées and Vansteenkiste, 2007]
S. Dées, I. Vansteenkiste.
The transmission of us cyclical deveploments to the rest of the world.
Working Paper Series Of European Central Bank, (2007),
[Diebold and Rudebusch, 1999]
F.X. Diebold, G.D. Rudebusch.
Business cycles.
Durations, dynamics and forecasting, Princenton University Press, (1999),
[Doug et al., 1997]
S. Doug, J. Stock, M. Watson.
The nairu, unemployment, and monetary policy.
Journal Of Economic Perspectives, 11 (1997), pp. 33-51
[Durland and McCurdy, 1994]
J.M. Durland, T.M. McCurdy.
Duration dependent transitions in a markov model of U.S.
Gnp Growth. Journal Of Business And Economic Statistics, 12 (1994), pp. 279-288
[Estey, 1967]
J.A. Estey.
Tratado sobre los ciclos económicos.
6.ª, Fondo De Cultura Económica, (1967),
[Estrella and Mishkin, 1995]
A. Estrella, F.S. Mishkin.
Prediction U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators.
Nber Working Paper N.° 5379, (1995),
[European Commission, 2000]
European Commission.
Handbook on constructing composite indicators: methodology and user guide.
OCDE, (2000),
[Evans et al., 2002]
Evans, C.L., Liu, C.T., Pham-Kanter, G., 2002. The 2001 recession and the Chicago fed national activity. Index: identifying business cycle turnning points, economic perspectives, 3q/2002. Federal Reserve Bank Of Chicago.
[Fernández, 1991]
F.J. Fernández.
Indicadores sintéticos de aceleraciones y desaceleraciones en la actividad económica.
Revista Española de Economía, 8 (1991), pp. 125-156
[Filardo and Gordon, 1996]
A.J. Filardo, S.F. Gordon.
Business cycle durations.
Journal Of Econometrics, 85 (1996), pp. 99-123
[Fontela, 1997a]
E. Fontela.
Los Ciclos económicos en la economía moderna.
Fundación Argentaria, Biblioteca Nueva, S.L, (1997),
[Forni et al., 2000b]
M. Forni, M. Hallin, M. Lippi, L. Reichlin.
Reference cycles: the Nber methodology revised.
Cepr Discussion Paper, (2000), pp. 2400
[Forni et al., 2000]
M. Forni, M. Lippi, L. Reichlin.
The generalized dynamic-factor model identification and estimation.
The Review Of Economics And Statistics, 82 (2000), pp. 540-554
[Forni et al., 2005]
M. Forni, M. Lippi, L. Reichlin.
The generalized dynamic-factor model one-sided estimation and forecasting.
Journal Of The American Statistical Association, 100 (2005), pp. 567-581
[Frish, 1933]
R.A. Frish.
Propagation and impulse problems in dynamic economics.
Economic Essays In Honor Of Gustav Cassel, (1933),
[García-Ferrer and Queralt, 1995]
A. García-Ferrer, R. Queralt.
Can univariate models forecast turning points in seasonal economic time series?.
International Journal Of Forecasting, 14 (1995), pp. 433-446
[Gerlach and Klock, 1988]
S. Gerlach, J. Klock.
State-space estimates of international business cycles.
Economics Letters, 28 (1988), pp. 231-234
[Geweke, 1977]
J. Geweke.
The dynamic factor analysis of economic time series.
Latent variables in socio-economic models,
[Goodwin, 1951]
R.M. Goodwin.
The nonlinear accelerator and the persistence of business cycles.
Econometrica, 19 (1951), pp. 1-17
[Gosselin and Tkacz, 2001]
M. Gosselin, G. Tkacz.
Evaluating factor models: an application to Canadian inflation.
Working Paper No 18. Bank Of Canada, (2001),
[Gregory et al., 1997]
A. Gregory, A. Head, J. Raynaud.
Measuring word business cycles.
International Economic Review, 38 (1997), pp. 677-701
[Hamilton, 1989]
J.D. Hamilton.
A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle.
Econometrica, 57 (1989), pp. 357-384
[Hamilton and Pérez-Quirós, 1996]
J.D. Hamilton, G. Pérez-Quirós.
What do the leading indicators lead?.
Journal Of Business, 56 (1996), pp. 89-123
[Harding and Pagan, 2002]
D. Harding, A. Pagan.
Dissecting the cycle: a methological investigation.
Journal Of Monetary Economics, 49 (2002), pp. 365-381
[Harrod, 1939]
R.F. Harrod.
An essay in dynamic theory.
The Economic Journal, 49 (1939), pp. 14-33
[Hicks, 1951]
J.R. Hicks.
A contribution to the theory of the trade cycle.
Readings In Business Cycles And National Income, (1951),
[Hodrick and Prescott, 1980]
R.J. Hodrick, E.C. Prescott.
Post war U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation.
Journal Of Money, Credit And Banking, (1980), pp. 29
[Instituto Nacional de and Estadística., 1994]
Instituto Nacional de Estadística.
Sistema de indicadores cíclicos de la economía española.
Metodología e índices sintéticos de adelanto coincidencia y retraso, INE, (1994),
[Jevons, 1875]
S.W. Jevons.
Influence of the sun-spot period on the price of corn. Nature.
Nature, Nature Publishing Group Subsidiaria De Macmillan Publishers, (1875),
[Juglar, 1863]
J.C. Juglar.
Des crises commerciales et leur retour periodique en France, en Angleterre et aux Etats-Unis.
Imprimirie De Veveu Berger Levrault, (1863),
[Kaldor, 1940]
N. Kaldor.
A model of the trade cycle.
Economic Journal, 50 (1940), pp. 197-210
[Kalecki, 1933]
Kalecki, M., 1933. An essay on the theory of the business cycle. In: Osiatynski, J. (Ed.). Collected Works Of Michal Kalecki 1, 65–81.
[Kaufmann, 2003]
S. Kaufmann.
The business cycle of European countries bayesian clustering of country-individual Ip growth series.
Working Paper 83, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, (2003),
[Kim and Nelson, 1998]
C.J. Kim, C.R. Nelson.
Business cycle turning points, a new coincident index, and tests of duration dependence based on a dynamic factor model with regime switching.
Review of Economics and Statistics, 80 (1998), pp. 188-201
[King and Plosser, 1984]
R.G. King, C.I. Plosser.
Money, credit and prices in a real business cycle.
American Economic Review, (1984), pp. 74
[Klein, 1947]
L.R. Klein.
The use of econometric models to guide economic policy.
Econometrica, (1947),
[Klein, 1950]
L.R. Klein.
Economic fluctuations in the United States, 1921–41.
Cowles Commission Monograph No. 11, John Wiley And Sons, (1950),
[Klein and Golberger, 1955]
L.R. Klein, A.S. Golberger.
An econometric model of the United States 1929–1952.
Ámsterdam, (1955),
[Koening and Emery, 1991]
Koening, E.V., Emery, K.M., 1991. Misleading indicators? Using the composite leading indicators to predict cyclical turning points. Economic And Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank Of Dallas Issue Jul, 1–14.
[Koopmans, 1947]
T.C. Koopmans.
Measurement without theory, 1947.
REStat, (1947),
[Kose and Cardarelli, 2004]
Kose, K.M., Cardarelli, R., 2004. Economic integration, business cycle, and productivity in North America. Imf Working Papers 04/138, International Monetary Fund.
[Kose et al., 2008]
Kose, M.A, Otrok, C., Prasad, E., 2008. Global business cycles: convergence o decoupling? Iza Discussion Paper Series, No. 3442, April 2008.(Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit Institute For The Study Of Labor).
[Kose et al., 2003a]
M.A. Kose, C. Otrok, C.H. Whiteman.
International business cycles: work, region and country-specific factors.
American Economic Review, 93 (2003), pp. 1216-1239
[Kose et al., 2003b]
M.A. Kose, E. Prasad, M. Terrones.
How does globalization affect the synchronization of business cycles?.
Imf Working Papers 03/27,
[Kose et al., 2005]
Kose, M.A., Otrok, C., Whiteman, C.H., 2005. Understanding the evolution of world bussines cycle. Imf Working Papers 05/211.(Washington: International Monetary Fund).
[Kouparitsas, 2002]
M.A. Kouparitsas.
Understanding U.S. regional cyclical comovement: How important are spillovers and common shocks?.
Economic Perspectives, 4th quarter, pp. 2002
[Krolzing and Toro, 2005]
H.M. Krolzing, J. Toro.
Classical and modern business cycle measurement: the European case.
Spanish Economic Review, 7 (2005), pp. 1-21
[Lahiri and Wang, 1994]
K. Lahiri, J.G. Wang.
Predicting cyclical turning points with a leading index in a markov switching model.
Journal Of Money, Credit And Banking, 22 (1994), pp. 77-93
[Lumsdaine and Prasad, 2002]
Lumsdaine, R.L., Prasad, E.S., 2002. Identifying the common component of international economic fluctuations: a new approach. Iza Discussion Paper Series, No. 487, April 2002, Forschunbgsinstitut Zur Zukunftder Arbeit Institute For The Study Of Labor.
[Malthus, 1836]
Malthus, T.R., 1836. Principles of political economy, considered with a view to their practical application. Ed. Hollander And Gregory.
[Massmann and Mitchell, 2004]
M. Massmann, J. Mitchell.
Reconsidering the evidence: are Eurozone business cycles converging?.
Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 1 (2004), pp. 275-307
[Maudos et al., 2008]
J. Maudos, J.M. Pastor, L. Serrano.
Permanent income, convergence and inequality among countries.
Review of income and wealth, 54 (2008), pp. 105-115
[McGukin et al., 2001]
R.H. McGukin, A. Ozyildirim, V. Zarnowitz.
The composite index of leading economic indicators: how to make it more timely.
Nber, Working Paper 8430, Massachusetts, (2001),
[Metzler, 1941]
L.A. Metzler.
The Nature and stability of inventory cycles.
The Review Of Economics And Statistics, 23 (1941), pp. 113-129
[Mills, 2002]
T.C. Mills.
Long term trends and business cycles.
The International Library Of Critical Writings In Economics, 149 (2002),
[Ministerio de Economía and Hacienda., 1981]
Ministerio de Economía y Hacienda.
Indicadores cíclicos: elaboración y aplicación al análisis de la economía española. Dirección General de Previsión y Coyuntura.
Publicaciones de la Secretaría General Técnica, (1981),
[Mintz, 1969]
I. Mintz.
Dating post-war business cycles, methods and their applications to Western Germany 1950–1967.
Occasional Paper 107. National Bureau Of Research, (1969),
[Mitchell, 1923]
W.C. Mitchell.
Business cycles and unemployment.
National Bureau Of Economic Research, (1923),
[Mitchell, 1927]
W.C. Mitchell.
Business cycles: the problem and its setting.
National Bureau Of Economic Research, (1927),
[Moore, 1923]
H.L. Moore.
Generating economic cycles.
The Mac Millian Co, (1923),
[Neftçi, 1984]
S.N. Neftçi.
Are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle?.
Journal Of Political Economy, 92 (1984), pp. 307-328
[OCDE, 2003]
OCDE.
Business tendency surveys: a handbook.
OCDE, (2003),
[Otrok and Whiteman, 1998]
C. Otrok, C.H. Whiteman.
Bayesian leading indicators: measuring and predicting economic conditions in Iowa.
International Economic Review, 39 (1998), pp. 997-1014
[Psaradakis and Sola, 2003]
Z. Psaradakis, M. Sola.
On detrending and cyclical asymmetry.
Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 18 (2003), pp. 271-289
[Quah and Sargent, 1993]
D.T. Quah, T.J. Sargent.
A dynamic index model for large cross sections.
Business cycles, indicators and forecasting, pp. 285-310
[Quilis, 1994]
E.M. Quilis.
Medida de la inflación subyacente: un análisis factorial dinámico.
Información Comercial Española, 729 (1994), pp. 101-108
[Razzak, 2001]
W.A. Razzak.
Business cycle asymmetries: international evidence.
Review Of Economic Dynamics, Academic Press For The Society For Economic Dynamics, 4 (2001), pp. 230-243
[Reijnders, 1990]
J. Reijnders.
Long waves in economic development.
Edward Elgar, Estados Unidos, (1990),
[Reinhart and Reinhart, 1986]
C. Reinhart, V. Reinhart.
Forecasting turning points in Canada.
Federal Reserve Board, (1986),
[Romer, 1986]
P. Romer.
Increasing returns and long run growth.
Journal Of Political Economy, 94 (1986), pp. 1002-1037
[Samuelson, 1939]
P.A. Samuelson.
Interactions between the multiplier, analysis and the principle of acceleration.
Review Of Economic Statistics, (1939), pp. 21
[Sargent and Sims, 1977]
T. Sargent, C. Sims.
Business cycle modelling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory.
New methods in business research,
[Schumpeter, 1935]
J.A. Schumpeter.
The analisis of economic change.
Review Of Economic Statistics, 17 (1935), pp. 2-10
[Sebastián, 1971]
C. Sebastián.
Las fluctuaciones de la economía española(1997–1996).
Un ensayo en la teoría de los ciclos, Marcial Pons, Ediciones Jurídicas y Sociales, S.A, (1971),
[Solomou, 1998]
S. Solomou.
Economic cycles. Long cycles and business cycles since 1870.
Manchester University Press, (1998),
[Spiethoff, 1925]
A. Spiethoff.
Krisen.
Jandowörterbuch Des Staatswissenschaften, 4.ª, Vi, (1925),
[Stock and Watson, 1989]
J. Stock, M. Watson.
New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators.
Nber macroeconomic annual: 1989, pp. 351-394
[Stock and Watson, 1993]
J. Stock, M. Watson.
A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems.
Econometrica, 61 (1993), pp. 783-820
[Stock and Watson, 1998]
J. Stock, M. Watson.
Diffusion indexes.
Working Paper No 6702, (1998),
[Stock and Watson, 1999]
J. Stock, M. Watson.
Forecasting inflation.
Journal Of Monetary Economics, 44 (1999), pp. 293-335
[Stock and Watson, 2002a]
J. Stock, M. Watson.
Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes.
Journal Of Business & Economic Statistics, 20 (2002), pp. 147-162
[Stock and Watson, 2002b]
J. Stock, M. Watson.
Forecasting using principal components from a large number of predictors.
Journal Of The American Statistical Association 97, (2002),
[Stock and Watson, 2003]
J. Stock, M. Watson.
Introduction to econometrics.
Addison Wesley, (2003),
[Stock and Watson, 2005]
J. Stock, M. Watson.
Understanding changes in international business cycle dynamics.
Journal Of The European Economic Association, Mit Press, 3 (2005), pp. 968-1006
[Stockman and Tesar, 1995]
A.C. Stockman, L.L. Tesar.
Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international comovements.
The American Economic Review, 85 (1995), pp. 168-185
[Süssmuth, 2003]
B. Süssmuth.
Business cycles in the contemporany world, description, causes, aggregation and synchronization.
Physica-Verlag Heidelberg, (2003),
[Tinbergen, 1936]
J. Tinbergen.
An economic policy for 1936.
Jang. Tingerber Selected Papers, Klassen Koyck And Witteveen, Ámsterdam, (1936),
[Tinbergen, 1937]
J. Tinbergen.
An econometric approach to business cycle problems.
Hermann & Cie, (1937),
[Tinbergen, 1940]
J. Tinbergen.
On a method of statistical business cycle research. A reply.
Economic Journal, (1940), pp. 50
[Tinbergen, 1942]
J. Tinbergen.
Critical remarks on some business cycle theories.
Econometrica, (1942), pp. 10
[Watson, 1994]
M. Watson.
Vector autoregressions and cointegration.
Handbook Of Econometrics, (1994),
[Zarnowitz, 1972]
V. Zarnowitz.
The business cycle today: Fiftieth Anniversary Colloquium I, Nber.
General Series, (1972),
[Zarnowitz, 1985]
V. Zarnowitz.
Recent Work on business cycles in historical perspective: a review of theories and evidence.
Journal Of Economic Literature Xxiii, (1985),
[Zarnowitz, 1992]
V. Zarnowitz.
Business cycles: theory, history indicators and forecasting.
University Of Chicago Press, (1992),
[Zarnowitz and Ozyildirim, 2001]
V. Zarnowitz, A. Ozyildirim.
Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles.
Economics Program Working Paper Series,
Copyright © 2011. Asociación Cuadernos de Economía
Article options
Tools