Article information
Resumen
En este trabajo se estudia el comportamiento cíclico de la inversión en exploración en el upstream de petróleo y gas natural en Argentina, y de algunas de las principales variables económicas de acuerdo con la metodología de Kydland y Prescott (1990). El fin del trabajo es realizar una aproximación a los determinantes de dicha inversión en un país en desarrollo. Algunos de los principales resultados cualitativos se relacionan con la falta de capacidad explicativa individual de las variables económicas, la relevancia de la incertidumbre y su impacto en la racionalidad de los agentes al momento de la toma de decisiones, en particular en países en desarrollo como el caso que aquí se analiza. Estos aspectos deben ser tomados particularmente en consideración al momento del análisis de la sustentabilidad del sistema energético y del diseño de la política energética, principalmente dado el rol del abastecimiento energético en el desarrollo socioeconómico.
Palabras clave:
Inversión en exploración
Coeficientes de correlación
Determinantes
Incertidumbre
Abstract
This article examines the cyclic behavior of investing in upstream oil and natural gas exploration in Argentina and some of the main economic variables in agreement with Kydland and Prescott's methodology (1990). The objective is to clarify the determinants involved in deciding to make said investment in a developing country. Some of the main qualitative results are related to the fact that the economic variables may not be explained individually, to the relevance of uncertainty and its impact on the agents’ rationality when making decisions especially in developing countries as is the case that is analyzed. These aspects must particularly be taken into consideration when analyzing the sustainability of the energy system and the energy policy's design, mainly given the role of energy supply in socio-economic development.
Keywords:
Investing in exploration
Correlation coefficient
Determinants
Uncertainty
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