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Annals of Hepatology

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Annals of Hepatology Long-term systemic effects of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver d...
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Vol. 31. Issue 1.
(January - June 2026)
Concise reviews
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Long-term systemic effects of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD, formerly NAFLD/MAFLD) in children: a systematic review of persistence and progression into adulthood

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Beatriz Rey-Garciaa, Maria Teresa Reyes-Chaconb, Eduardo Rosas-Blumc, Marie Leinera,
Corresponding author
Marie.leiner@ttuhsc.edu

Corresponding author.
a Texas Tech University Health Science Center El Paso, Department of Pediatrics – El Paso Texas, USA
b Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Family Medicine, Ciudad Juarez, Chih. Mexico
c Pediatric GI of El Paso. El Paso, TX, USA
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Tables (3)
Table 1. Longitudinal studies tracking children into adulthood.
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Table 2. Childhood risk factors predictive of adult MASLD outcomes.
Tables
Table 3. Evidence-based algorithms for MASLD.
Tables

Keywords:
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)
Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD)
Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)
Childhood obesity
Long-term health outcomes;​ Cardiovascular and metabolic complications
Pediatric to adult care transition
Liver steatosis
Abbreviations:
AASLD
AKR1B10
ALSPAC
ALT
APRI
AST
AUROC
BMI
CAP
CDC
CRP
CT
CVD
DAAs
dB/m
DONALD
DXA
EASD
EASL
EASO
ECON
ELF
F2
FIB-4
FISPGHAN
GIP
GLP-1
HbA1c
HDL
HOMA-IR
ICD
IDF
IDF
IRB
kPa
LSM
MACE
MAFLD
MASLD
MASH
METs
MPA
MRI
NAFLD
NASPGHAN
NASH
NOS
OMA
PNPLA3
PRISMA
SNOMED
SPP1
TM6SF2
U/L
UK
USA
US-FLI
VLDL
VPA
Graphical abstract
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1Introduction1.1Evolving terminology and its impact on diagnostic criteria and epidemiological implications in pediatric populations

The understanding of liver steatosis, including metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), previously referred to as nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD), has undergone significant evolution in recent years. This shift in terminology reflects a growing recognition of the systemic nature of the disease, particularly among children affected by obesity and metabolic dysfunction. Initially, NAFLD was defined by the presence of hepatic steatosis in the absence of alcohol consumption or other liver diseases, such as viral hepatitis or autoimmune liver disorders [1,2]. However, this definition often excluded children with metabolic risk factors who did not meet the strict criteria for NAFLD, leading to an underestimation of the true prevalence of liver steatosis in pediatric populations, especially among those without overt metabolic syndrome [3,4]. In response to these limitations, the term MAFLD was introduced in 2020, emphasizing the role of metabolic dysfunction as a central driver of the disease [1]. The implementation of this reclassification resulted in an expanded diagnostic scope, encompassing additional risk factors, including obesity, insulin resistance, and dyslipidemia, which have been documented to be prevalent among specific demographic groups of children and adolescents. Subsequently, in 2023, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) adopted the term MASLD, further refining the classification to align with updated diagnostic criteria and emphasizing the steatotic nature of the condition [2]. MASLD is inherently more inclusive than its predecessors, requiring fewer metabolic risk factors for diagnosis, which has led to higher detection rates.​ For instance, studies have reported a 13–15% increase in the identification of liver steatosis cases among children with metabolic risk factors when using MASLD criteria compared to NAFLD [4].

In addition to MASLD, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), a more severe form of liver steatosis characterized by liver inflammation and fibrosis, has also undergone a terminological shift. NASH is increasingly referred to as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), aligning with the MASLD framework and emphasizing the metabolic dysfunction driving the disease [2]. This terminological evolution has been critical for ensuring future consistency in research and clinical practice, as it reflects the underlying pathophysiology of the disease and facilitates the identification of at-risk populations.

Despite the high concordance between MAFLD and MASLD definitions, estimated at over 97% discrepancies in diagnostic methodologies persist [5,6]. These differences are often attributable to the scope and inclusion criteria of each definition. NAFLD primarily focused on hepatic steatosis while excluding other liver diseases, whereas MAFLD and MASLD adopt broader approaches by incorporating metabolic dysfunction. The inconsistent use of diagnostic criteria and methods for liver steatosis impacts research, as reliance on NAFLD criteria may underestimate prevalence, particularly in populations with high obesity and metabolic syndrome rates, hindering reliable prevalence estimates. Imaging techniques such as ultrasound, while widely accessible and cost-effective, often underreport disease prevalence compared to advanced methods like transient elastography, MRI, or controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) scores [5,6].

The lack of uniform diagnostic criteria also presents challenges for tracking liver steatosis progression from childhood into adulthood. Longitudinal studies have shown that liver steatosis frequently advances without noticeable symptoms and is often identified incidentally during routine evaluations [7,8]. While the high concordance between MAFLD and MASLD definitions suggests that the transition to MASLD has not drastically altered the population of diagnosed cases, the variability in prevalence estimates across studies highlights the importance of addressing methodological inconsistencies.

This review employs the AASLD-endorsed MASLD terminology with the objective of maintaining uniformity with prevailing guidelines and aligning with the most recent understanding of the disease. The terms "NAFLD" and "MAFLD" are retained when specifically referencing studies that utilized these nomenclatures in prevalence reports or descriptive tables. Conversely, the terms "MASLD" and "MASH" are employed to reflect the most current understanding of the disease.

The variability in prevalence estimates across studies presents a challenge that can obscure the overall conclusions of this review. Although there are challenges, the findings of this study hold significant importance and provide valuable insights into the evolving understanding of pediatric MASLD. By including longitudinal studies that utilized NAFLD, MAFLD, and possible MASLD criteria, this review provides an integral analysis of the disease’s prevalence and progression across diverse populations and diagnostic methodologies. While differences in prevalence estimates may arise due to variations in diagnostic criteria, the review’s longitudinal focus offers valuable insights into the persistence and systemic impact of MASLD from childhood into adulthood.

1.2Global prevalence and long-term implications

The prevalence of liver steatosis is a significant concern, with estimates for MAFLD ranging from 45% in specialized clinics focused on childhood obesity to 34% in the general population of overweight or obese children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years, regardless of the diagnostic technique used [5]. Globally, the prevalence of MASLD ranges from 8% in children to 36.1% among obese adolescents [9]. These statistics are concerning indicating the high relevance to address the systemic barriers that hinder early diagnosis and effective management. In the United States, the prevalence of MASLD among adults is projected to rise from 33.7% in 2020 to 41.4% by 2050. The number of individuals affected by advanced stages of the disease, such as MASH and fibrosis stage F2 or higher, is expected to increase by 75% during the same period. Furthermore, hepatocellular carcinoma cases are predicted to double, liver transplants to quadruple, and liver-related mortality to rise from 30,500 deaths in 2020 to 95,300 deaths by 2050 [10–15].

Central to the impact of MASLD is its silent progress which leads to severe complications such as liver cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease, and liver-related mortality [16–20]. As a multisystem disorder, it is closely linked to metabolic, renal, and cardiovascular health, contributing to long-term risks such as type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension [21–24]. Pediatric patients are particularly vulnerable, as metabolic abnormalities such as insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, and hypertension significantly increase their likelihood of developing cardiovascular complications later in life, while the chronic inflammatory state associated with the disease further accelerates endothelial dysfunction, a precursor to atherosclerosis and other cardiovascular disorders [25–29]. A significant concern exists regarding the transition from pediatric to adult care, which is frequently obstructed by systemic barriers. These barriers include, but are not limited to, fragmented medical records and low follow-up rates [30–32]. A lack of awareness among healthcare providers, families, and affected individuals further delays diagnosis and treatment. On the other hand, the societal normalization of obesity, often referred to as "obesity invisibility," further obscures the risks associated with metabolic dysfunction, leading to an underestimation of its systemic impact [33–36]. Emerging evidence underscores the silent nature of this condition, with many cases progressing asymptomatically and only being identified incidentally during routine and non-routine health evaluations [37,38]. These challenges in early recognition, coupled with insufficient diagnostic criteria and the asymptomatic progression of the disease, contribute to its underdiagnosis and delayed intervention, leaving affected individuals vulnerable to severe long-term health consequences [7,39,40]. Given these severe long-term health risks, early identification and intervention are paramount to prevent disease progression and improve outcomes.

1.3Early identification of MASLD: diagnostic markers and criteria

Elevated liver enzymes, such as ALT and aspartate aminotransferase (AST), are widely recognized as early markers of liver injury and disease progression [41]. The North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition (NASPGHAN) guidelines recommend ALT thresholds of ≥26 U/L for boys and ≥22 U/L for girls, with sustained elevations over three months in overweight or obese children aged 10 years or older considered predictive of liver disease [42]. However, it is important to note that while ALT is commonly used as a biomarker for chronic liver diseases due to its ease of measurement and low cost, its diagnostic performance for identifying MASH is limited [43]. Studies have shown that ALT has a suboptimal diagnostic performance for detecting liver conditions, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.6144, sensitivity ranging from 54 to 88%, and specificity from 26 to 100% [38]. In addition, the reliance on these markers alone may overlook cases of MASLD with normal enzyme levels, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive diagnostic approach [7,45].

Body Mass Index (BMI) is a measure used to assess weight status in children and adolescents, based on age- and sex-specific percentiles from CDC growth charts. Overweight is defined as a BMI between the 85th and 95th percentiles, while obesity is classified as a BMI at or above the 95th percentile. Severe obesity is identified when BMI is at least 120% of the 95th percentile or approximately the 99th percentile. Obesity is further categorized into Class I (BMI 120%-140% of the 95th percentile or 35-40 kg/m²), Class II (BMI ≥140% of the 95th percentile or ≥40 kg/m²), and Class III obesity, which is defined as having a BMI that is at least 140% of the 95th percentile for age and sex or a BMI of 40 kg/m² or higher, whichever is lower [46].

In addition to body and liver enzyme abnormalities, metabolic syndrome serves as a critical early indicator of disease risk. This cluster of metabolic disturbances, including central obesity, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and hyperglycemia, is closely linked to the development and progression of steatotic liver disease [47]. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) defines pediatric metabolic syndrome as central obesity (waist circumference ≥90th percentile for age and sex) combined with at least two of the following: elevated triglycerides (≥150 mg/dL), reduced HDL cholesterol (<40 mg/dL for boys, <50 mg/dL for girls), elevated blood pressure (≥130/85 mmHg or above the 95th percentile for age, sex, and height), or elevated fasting glucose (≥100 mg/dL) [48]. Insulin resistance, a hallmark of metabolic syndrome, is a key driver of liver fat accumulation and fibrosis, and its presence can be assessed using Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) scores and fasting insulin levels [47,49]. A commonly cited cutoff for indicating insulin resistance in children includes a HOMA-IR score of 2.5 or higher [42]. Although, some studies suggest that a score above 3.0 might be more indicative of clinically significant insulin resistance in pediatric populations at higher risk, including those with obesity [50]. Furthermore, systemic inflammation, as indicated by elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (range of 3 to 10 mg/L) [51], contributes to endothelial dysfunction and amplifies the risk of cardiovascular complications [8,52].

1.4Biomarkers and advanced diagnostic techniques in MASLD

The integration of liver enzyme thresholds, metabolic syndrome criteria, and other biomarkers such as genetic variants provide a comprehensive framework for early detection. Genetic variants, such as PNPLA3 and TM6SF2, are emerging as significant predictors of the condition’s progression, especially in children with obesity and metabolic disturbances [49,52]. Studies also indicate that PNPLA3 I148M variant disrupts the enzymatic activity responsible for triglyceride hydrolysis, leading to hepatic lipid accumulation and an increased risk of steatohepatitis and fibrosis. Similarly, the TM6SF2 E167K variant impairs the secretion of very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) particles, further exacerbating hepatic fat deposition and increasing susceptibility to advanced liver disease, including fibrosis and cirrhosis [52].

Advances in imaging technology, such as transient elastography, controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) scores for evaluating liver steatosis, and enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) scores for assessing liver fibrosis, have emerged as promising non-invasive methods for evaluating liver health [53,54]. Liver stiffness measurements (LSM) with values exceeding 8 kPa are widely accepted as indicative of significant fibrosis risk in pediatric populations (EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines, 2024 [55]).

Lifestyle factors, including physical activity, dietary habits, and exposure to passive smoking, have also been identified as contributing factors to the development of MASLD. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents has emerged as a salient public health concern, yet there are substantial knowledge gaps concerning its long-term progression and systemic effects.

This study seeks to address this pressing issue by providing a comprehensive analysis of its long-term effects, with a specific focus on determining whether these effects persist, amplify, or evolve into adulthood. A review of the current literature reveals significant gaps in research, particularly in relation to longitudinal studies that track this condition into adulthood and the absence of standardized diagnostic protocols to predict long-term health outcomes. By offering a thorough synopsis, emphasizing the significance of early identification, intervention, and ongoing care to reduce long-term health consequences, we aim to establish a foundation for future research and strategies to enhance patient outcomes.

1.5Research objectives

The objectives of this study were to:

  • 1.

    Assess the prevalence and severity of MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD), in pediatric and adult populations.

  • 2.

    Evaluate long-term health outcomes in adults with a history of childhood MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD).

  • 3.

    Examine the role of early biomarkers and predictive indicators in the progression of MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD) from childhood to adulthood.

  • 4.

    Evaluate the Interconnected Nature of Systemic Metabolic, Cardiovascular, and Liver-Related Complications of MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD).

  • 5.

    Address challenges in transitioning MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD) patients from pediatric to adult care.

2Methods

This systematic review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist to ensure systematic, transparent reporting and reproducibility. IRB approval was not required, as the research exclusively analyzed previously published data.

2.1Search strategy

The evolving terminology of MASLD, previously referred to as NAFLD and MAFLD, has led to variability in diagnostic criteria and reported prevalence rates, particularly in pediatric populations. This variability poses challenges in comparing studies and interpreting findings, as different definitions may capture distinct subsets of patients. Specifically, studies using the MAFLD criteria may identify children with metabolic risk factors who would not meet the NAFLD criteria, potentially leading to discrepancies in prevalence estimates. This review considers studies using all three terminologies (NAFLD, MAFLD, MASLD) to ensure comprehensive coverage and to account for the impact of these differing definitions on reported prevalence and progression data. Concordance studies have highlighted significant differences in prevalence rates, patient characteristics, and associated risk factors when applying these varying definitions in pediatric populations, emphasizing the need for standardized diagnostic criteria to ensure consistency in research and clinical practice [3,56,57]. To avoid conflating prevalence data, the term liver steatosis is used when referring to findings from studies employing NAFLD or MAFLD diagnostic criteria.

This review primarily focuses on the prevalence of disease, which refers to the proportion of individuals in a population who have the condition at a specific point in time or over a defined period. It is important to make a distinction between prevalence and incidence, which refers to the rate of new cases developing in a population during a specific time frame. This distinction is relevant for the study for comprehending the overall burden of MASLD (prevalence) in contrast to the dynamics of disease emergence (incidence). While this review emphasizes prevalence data to highlight the scope and systemic impact, further research into incidence is also necessary to better understand risk factors and disease progression.

A comprehensive search strategy was developed to identify relevant studies published between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2024. The search was conducted across five major bibliographic databases: Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library. These databases were selected for their extensive coverage of biomedical and clinical research.

Given the evolving terminology of MASLD, the search terms included variations of the disease nomenclature to ensure the inclusion of all relevant studies.​ Specifically, MASLD was previously referred to as Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and later as Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease (MAFLD). The search terms included combinations of the following:

  • Disease Terminology: "Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease" OR "NAFLD" OR "Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease" OR "MAFLD" OR "Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease" OR "MASLD" OR "Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis" OR "NASH" OR "Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis" OR "MASH"

  • Population: "Children" OR "Pediatric" OR "Adolescents" OR "ages 0–18"

  • Systemic Effects: "Systemic effects" OR "Cardiovascular disease" OR "Type 2 diabetes" OR "Liver fibrosis" OR "Cirrhosis" OR "Liver-related mortality"

  • Biomarkers: "Biomarkers" OR "Liver enzymes" OR "Insulin resistance" OR "Inflammatory markers" OR "Liver Stiffness Measurements" OR "LSMs." OR “Patatin-Like Phospholipase Domain-Containing Protein 3” OR “PNPLA3” OR "Transmembrane 6 Superfamily Member 2” OR “TM6SF2" OR "Homeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance” OR “HOMA-IR" OR "C-Reactive Protein” OR “CRP" OR "Controlled Attenuation Parameter” OR “CAP scores" OR "Enhanced Liver Fibrosis scores or “ELF scores".

  • Lifestyle and Environmental Factors: "Lifestyle factors" OR "Physical activity" OR "Dietary habits" OR "Processed food consumption" OR "Sugary beverage intake" OR "Passive smoking" OR "Socioeconomic disadvantage" OR "Maternal obesity"

2.2Eligibility criteria

Studies were included if they met the following criteria:

  • Language: Studies published in English

  • Population: Studies involving children and adolescents (ages 0–18) at baseline with follow-up into adulthood

  • Study design: Longitudinal, cohort or prospective studies reporting on short-term and long-term effects of MASLD, NAFLD or MAFLD

  • Outcomes: Studies tracking the progression of MASLD, NAFLD or MAFLD from childhood into adulthood

2.3Exclusion criteria

Studies not involving human subjects

Studies focusing solely on adults or children

Studies without clear diagnostic criteria for MASLD, MAFLD, or NAFLD

Case reports and reviews without original data

2.4Study selection

All identified records were imported into a reference management software and duplicates were removed. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts for eligibility. Discrepancies were resolved through discussion or consultation with a third reviewer, a clinical expert specializing in family medicine. A fourth reviewer, a pediatric gastroenterologist, provided additional expertise in clinical implications and contributed to resolving any remaining disagreements. The variability in diagnostic methods and study designs across the included studies was noted during the selection process. Studies using different approaches, such as ultrasound imaging, liver biopsy, and advanced imaging techniques (e.g., MRI, transient elastography), were included to provide a comprehensive overview of MASLD prevalence and progression.

2.5Data extraction and synthesis

Data were extracted using a standardized form, capturing study characteristics (e.g., author, year, country, sample size, follow-up duration), population demographics, diagnostic methods, long-term outcomes, and risk factors. Extracted data were organized into tables summarizing study details, diagnostic methods, biomarkers, and key findings. When discussing prevalence data derived from studies using NAFLD or MAFLD criteria, the term liver steatosis is used to ensure terminological accuracy. The variability in diagnostic methods was accounted for during data synthesis to ensure comparability across studies.

The extracted data were organized into Table 1, which was divided into three parts:

  • 1.

    Part 1: Study Details and Population Characteristics – This section includes information on study design, sample size, population characteristics, follow-up duration, baseline Pediatric Liver Steatosis Prevalence/Indicators, and adult liver steatosis prevalence/complications.

  • 2.

    Part 2: Diagnosis, Long-Term Symptoms, and Biomarkers – This section outlines the diagnostic methods used in each study, the biological systems affected at pediatric baseline and follow-up, and the assessment tools and biomarkers employed (e.g., ALT, AST, HOMA-IR scores, genetic variants, imaging techniques).

  • 3.

    Part 3: Key Findings, Limitations, Quality Assessments, and Predicted Long-Term Effects – This section summarizes the key findings of each study, identifies limitations (e.g., loss to follow-up, diagnostic variability), provides Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) scores for quality assessment, and predicted long-term effects (e.g., type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, liver-related mortality).

Table 1.

Longitudinal studies tracking children into adulthood.

Part 1. Study details and population characteristics
Study ID  Authors  Year  Country  Study Design  Sample Size  Population Characteristics  Follow-up duration  Baseline Pediatric Liver Steatosis Prevalence/Indicators  Adult Liver Steatosis Prevalence/Complications 
1[47Yan Y, Hou D, Zhao X, et al.  2017  China  Longitudinal cohort  1,350  Children aged 6–18 years  23.3 years  Childhood obesity  Liver steatosis: 30.5%, ALT elevation: 20.9% 
2[41Kaikkonen et al.  2017  Finland  Longitudinal  3,596  Children aged 3–18 years  10 years  BMI, metabolic measures  19% Liver Steatosis prevalence 
3[61Simon et al.  2023  Sweden  Nationwide cohort  699 Liver Steatosis patients, 3,353 controls  16.6 years  Median 16.6 years  Histologically confirmed Liver Steatosis  Higher rates of MACE 
4[65Wang et al.  2016  China  Cross-sectional  5,306  Adults exposed to famine  52–93 years  Famine exposure  55.4% Liver Steatosis prevalence in men, 51.7% in women 
5[59Daniel J. Cuthbertson et al.  2019  Finland  Longitudinal  2,020  Children aged 3–18 years  31 years  BMI, metabolic factors  40.5% liver steatosis prevalence in obese adults 
6[49Suomela et al.  2016  Finland  Longitudinal  2,042  Children aged 3–18 years  31 years  BMI, insulin, genetic variants  19% liver steatosis prevalence 
7[62Aya Bardugo, Cole et al.  2021  Israel  Nationwide cohort  1,025,796  Adolescents aged 16–19 years  13.3 years  Liver Steatosis diagnosed  19% type 2 diabetes prevalence 
8[8Feitong Wu et al.  2021  Finland  Prospective cohort  1,315  Children aged 3–18 years  31 years  Passive smoking, BMI, insulin  16.3% Liver Steatosis prevalence 
9[63Tamoore Arshad, et al.  2021  USA  Cross-sectional  4,654  Adolescents and young adults aged 12–29 years  9 years  Obesity, metabolic syndrome  18.5% Liver Steatosis prevalence 
10[54Draijer et al.  2023  Netherlands  Long-term follow-up  51  Adolescents with severe obesity  10 years  Obesity severe  Prevalence 6% advanced fibrosis Steatosis (47%) 
11[67Junia N. de Brito at al.  2023  USA  Prospective cohort  2,833  Adults aged 18–30 years  25 years  BMI, physical activity  24% Liver Steatosis prevalence 
12[60Catherine C. Cohen, at al.  2021  United Kingdom  Longitudinal cohort  1,657  ALSPAC participants  15 years  Body fat percentage  20.7% Liver Steatosis prevalence 
13[7Tracey G Simon et al.  2021  Sweden  Nationwide cohort  718 Liver Steatosis patients, 3,457 controls  Children and young adults aged <25 years  Median of 15.8 years  The study categorized Liver Steatosis into simple steatosis and NASH  7.7% overall mortality among Liver Steatosis patients, 1.1% among controls; 5.26-fold higher mortality in simple steatosis, 11.51-fold higher in NASH 
14[70Tomi T Laitinen et al  2020  Finland  Longitudinal  2,042  Children aged 3–18 years  31 years  BMI, insulin, low birth weight  18.9% Liver Steatosis prevalence 
15[64Cantoral A, at al.  2020  Mexico  Cohort study  97  Pregnant women with singleton births; offspring tracked from birth to young adulthood.  21–22 years  Maternal overweight/obesity  17% Liver Steatosis prevalence 
16[66Hongyan Qi et al.  2020  China  Cross-sectional  7,632  Adults exposed to famine  69 years  Famine exposure  28.8% Liver Steatosis prevalence 
17[71Hannes Hagström et al.  2021  Sweden  Nationwide cohort  165 Liver Steatosis cases, 717 controls  Individuals <25 years of age with biopsy-verified Liver Steatosis  24 years  Biopsy-proven Liver Steatosis  Increased risk and severity of Liver Steatosis in offspring of obese mothers 
18[53Abeysekera et al.  2022  UK  Prospective cohort  3,274  Adolescents aged 17.8 years  6 years  Ultrasound-defined steatosis  20.7% Liver Steatosis prevalence, 2.4% fibrosis prevalence 
19[101Osake et al.  2018  Japan  Historical cohort  1,010  Adults diagnosed with Liver Steatosis  10 years  Liver Steatosis diagnosis  46% remission in men, 48.7% in women 
20[68Schnermann et al.  2023  Germany  Longitudinal cohort  240  Adolescents aged 8.5–16.5 years  12 years  Lifestyle factors  Fatty liver indices inversely linked to healthy lifestyle 
21[102Abeysekera et al  2021  UK  Prospective cohort  2,961  Young adults (mean age 24)  24 years  Liver Steatosis prevalence (CAP ≥248 dB/m)  10.1% severe steatosis prevalence 
22[69Sekkarie et al.  2021  UK  Longitudinal cohort  3,095  Children aged 3 years  21 years  Not assessed  9.8% severe hepatic steatosis prevalence 
23[52Hagström et al.  2016  Sweden  Cohort study  44,248  Male adolescents aged 18–20 years  39 years  BMI  Severe liver disease prevalence 
24[72Cioffi et al.  2017  USA  Single-center study  44  Pediatric Liver Steatosis patients  4.5 years  Obesity, diabetes, fibrosis  78% obese, 30% diabetes, progression in fibrosis for some 
25[10Golabi et al  2020  United States  Longitudinal cohort  9,341  Adults aged 20–74 years  22.4 years  Liver Steatosis prevalence  Elevated risk of mortality, CVD, cancer 
26[32Zimmermann et al  2015  Denmark  Prospective cohort  244,464  School-aged children (7–13 years)  Up to 80 years  BMI  2,370 Liver Steatosis cases diagnosed in adulthood 
BMI: Body Mass Index, ALT: Alanine Aminotransferase, AST: Aspartate Aminotransferase, MACE: Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events, CAP: Controlled Attenuation Parameter, CVD: Cardiovascular Disease, UK: United Kingdom, USA: United States of America
Part 2. Diagnosis, long-term symptoms, and biomarkers
Study ID  Liver Steatosis Diagnosis Method  Biological Systems Affected at Pediatric Baseline  Biological Systems Affected at Follow-up  Assessment Tools and Biomarkers 
Ultrasound  Metabolic, cardiovascular  Metabolic, cardiovascular  BMI, ALT, cholesterol, triglycerides 
Ultrasound  Cardiovascular, metabolic  Hepatic, metabolic  BMI, insulin, liver enzymes, CRP 
Histopathology  Metabolic (diabetes, obesity)  Cardiovascular (MACE)  MACE outcomes, cardiac arrhythmias 
Ultrasonography  Digestive (malnutrition)  Moderate-severe steatosis  ALT, BMI, diabetes, hypertension 
Ultrasound  Cardiovascular, metabolic  Liver health, metabolic  BMI, insulin, ALT, AST 
Ultrasound  Metabolic, cardiac  Hepatic steatosis  BMI, genetic variants (PNPLA3, TM6SF2) 
Biopsy or imaging  Metabolic, cardiovascular  Metabolic, cardiovascular  Fasting glucose, HbA1c 
Ultrasound  Respiratory  Liver, respiratory  Serum cotinine, BMI, insulin 
US-FLI  Liver, metabolic  Liver, metabolic  Waist circumference, fasting insulin 
10  MRI, ELF test  Liver (steatosis)  Liver (fibrosis), metabolic  ALT, AST, triglycerides 
11  CT  Metabolic, respiratory  Liver, cardiovascular  Liver attenuation values 
12  Transient elastography  Hepatic, metabolic  Hepatic steatosis  CAP score, DXA for body fat 
13  Liver biopsy  Hepatic  Increased mortality  Biopsy-confirmed NAFLD, fibrosis 
14  Ultrasound  Metabolic  Metabolic, cardiovascular  BMI, insulin, triglycerides 
15  MRI  Metabolic (prenatal impacts)  Liver, metabolic  Hepatic triglyceride content 
16  Ultrasonography  Liver (fatty infiltration)  Liver, metabolic  BMI, lipids, glucose 
17  Liver biopsy  Liver (steatosis, fibrosis)  Increased severity of Liver Steatosis  SNOMED coding 
18  Ultrasound, elastography  Liver (steatosis)  Liver (fibrosis)  CAP score, LSM 
19  Ultrasonography  Liver, cardiovascular  Liver, cardiovascular  Blood chemistry, questionnaires 
20  Fatty liver indices  Metabolic  Liver, metabolic  ALT, AST, triglycerides 
21  Transient elastography  Liver (steatosis)  Liver (fibrosis)  CAP, ALT, AST 
22  Transient elastography  Not assessed  Liver (severe steatosis)  CAP score, BMI 
23  Not applicable  Cardiovascular, metabolic  Liver (cirrhosis, mortality)  BMI, ICD codes 
24  Liver biopsy  Hepatic, metabolic  Hepatic, metabolic  Biopsy, BMI, glucose 
25  Ultrasound  Metabolic  Cardiovascular, hepatic  APRI, FIB-4 
26  Hospital records  BMI  Liver (fibrosis, cirrhosis)  Blood tests, imaging 
ALT: Alanine Aminotransferase, AST: Aspartate Aminotransferase, BMI: Body Mass Index, CAP: Controlled Attenuation Parameter, CRP: C-Reactive Protein, DXA: Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry, ELF: Enhanced Liver Fibrosis, FIB-4: Fibrosis-4 Index, HbA1c: Hemoglobin A1c, LSM: Liver Stiffness Measurement, MRI: Magnetic Resonance Imaging, MACE: Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events, SNOMED: Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine, APRI: Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index
Part 3. Key Findings, limitations, quality assessments, and predicted long-term effects
Study ID  Key Findings  Limitations  Quality assessments NOS  Predicted Long-Term Effects 
Childhood obesity predicts adult Liver Steatosis; normal weight in adulthood mitigates risk.  Loss to follow-up; lack of childhood liver data.  Increased risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease 
Metabolic profiles predict fatty liver development.  Limited replication: ultrasound may miss severe cases.  Early detection of fatty liver disease and targeted preventive strategies based on metabolic profiles 
Liver Steatosis linked to higher rates of MACE, including ischemic heart disease  Retrospective design; low study outcomes; residual confounding.  Increased cardiovascular disease risk. 
Early famine exposure linked to higher Liver Steatosis prevalence in women.  Assumed residential stability; unclear famine dates.  Increased risk of Liver Steatosis, diabetes, hypertension. 
Childhood obesity predicts adult Liver Steatosis; normal BMI reduces risk.  No childhood liver enzyme data; ultrasound limitations.  Risk of Liver Steatosis if obesity persists; mitigated by normal BMI. 
High BMI > 95% percentile, insulin, and genetic variants predict adult fatty liver.  Homogeneous sample; no childhood liver enzyme data.  Target group for lifestyle interventions. 
Adolescent Liver Steatosis triples risk of type 2 diabetes in adulthood.  No systematic screening; lack of lifestyle data.  Increased risk of early-onset diabetes and cardiovascular disease. 
Passive smoking linked to midlife Liver Steatosis and systemic complications.  No childhood fatty liver data; ultrasound sensitivity issues.  Risk of advanced fibrosis, cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease. 
Liver Steatosis prevalence rising in young adults, linked to obesity.  Noninvasive diagnostic method; lack of fibrosis data.  Increased liver-related mortality risk. 
10  6% of adolescents with Liver Steatosis develop advanced fibrosis.  Small sample; selection bias.  Persistent obesity and liver injury risk. 
11  Vigorous physical activity reduces Liver Steatosis risk in midlife.  Self-reported activity data; limited ethnic diversity.  Sustained VPA lowers Liver Steatosis risk. 
12  High body fat in adolescence linked to adult Liver Steatosis.  Homogeneous sample; potential CAP measurement error.  Targeted interventions during adolescence. 
13  Pediatric Liver Steatosis linked to excess mortality, amplified by steatohepatitis.  Retrospective design; sampling error; residual confounding.  Increased risk of liver-related mortality and cardiometabolic disease. 
14  Maternal obesity strongly linked to offspring Liver Steatosis.  Small sample; self-reported pre-pregnancy weight.  Intergenerational impact on Liver Steatosis prevalence. 
15  Childhood famine exposure increases Liver Steatosis risk, especially with obesity.  Cross-sectional design; ultrasonography limitations.  Higher prevalence of Liver Steatosis and related complications. 
16  Central adiposity predicts Liver Steatosis and fibrosis in young adulthood.  Limited generalizability; no advanced imaging data.  Increased liver morbidity and mortality. 
17  Regular exercise linked to Liver Steatosis remission in men.  Potential misreporting; lack of exercise intensity data.  Long-term remission of Liver Steatosis. 
18  Healthy lifestyle inversely linked to fatty liver indices in adulthood.  Small sample; single lifestyle measurement.  Reduced risk of Liver Steatosis and metabolic diseases. 
19  Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI linked to offspring Liver Steatosis.  Underpowered to assess breastfeeding effects.  Increased risk of Liver Steatosis -related complications. 
20  High sugar intake weakly linked to severe hepatic steatosis.  Limited generalizability; dietary data limitations.  Risk of liver-related complications if high sugar intake persists. 
21  Adolescent overweight predicts severe liver disease later in life.  Male-only sample; limited obesity prevalence analysis.  Increased prevalence of severe liver disease. 
22  High prevalence of obesity and diabetes; fibrosis progression observed.  Low response rate; reliance on pediatric records.  Persistent obesity and liver disease progression. 
23  Liver Steatosis prevalence influenced by body composition; visceral obesity predicts mortality.  Ultrasound reliance; lack of histological data.  Increased risk of cardiovascular disease and liver-related mortality. 
24  Excessive BMI gain during ages 7–13 predicts adult Liver Steatosis.  No BMI data before age 7; reliance on hospital diagnoses.  Increased risk of Liver Steatosis and cirrhosis in adulthood. 
25  Liver Steatosis prevalence influenced by BMI/waist circumference; visceral obesity predicts mortality.  Ultrasound limitations, cross-sectional data.  Increased CVD, cancer, liver-related mortality. 
26  BMI gain (ages 7–13) predicts adult Liver Steatosis, independent of initial BMI.  No BMI data before age 7, underestimation of Liver Steatosis.  Higher risk of cirrhosis in adulthood. 

MACE: Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events, CVD: Cardiovascular Disease, BMI: Body Mass Index, VPA: Vigorous Physical Activity, CAP: Controlled Attenuation Parameter, NOS: Newcastle–Ottawa Scale

To enhance clarity and usability, a separate table (Table 2) was constructed to summarize childhood risk factors that predict adult MASLD, MAFLD, or NAFLD outcomes (liver steatosis). This table links early-life indicators (e.g., Body Mass Index, maternal obesity, passive smoking, genetic predispositions) to long-term health outcomes (e.g., MASLD, MAFLD, or NAFLD prevalence, cardiovascular complications, liver-related mortality). Each risk factor is accompanied by a description of its association with adult MASLD, MAFLD, or NAFLD outcomes, supported by evidence from the included studies.

Table 2.

Childhood risk factors predictive of adult MASLD outcomes.

Risk Factor  Study ID  Childhood Indicators  Adult Outcomes  Key Risk Factor → Outcome Link 
Childhood Obesity (BMI > 95% percentile)  1,2,5  High BMI, waist circumference, metabolic factors  30.5% prevalence of Liver Steatosis in adulthood; increased risk of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease  Overweight/obese children are twice as likely to develop Liver Steatosis as adults; risk mitigated by achieving normal BMI in adulthood. 
Maternal Obesity  17,15  Maternal overweight/obesity during pregnancy  Increased severity of Liver Steatosis in offspring; 17% prevalence of Liver Steatosis in young adulthood  Maternal overweight or obesity strongly associated with offspring Liver Steatosis, independent of socioeconomic and metabolic parameters. 
Passive Smoking (Childhood)  Serum cotinine levels, parental smoking status  Increased risk of Liver Steatosis in midlife; potential for advanced fibrosis, cirrhosis, and cardiovascular complications  Persistent exposure to passive smoking increases risk of Liver Steatosis and systemic complications in adulthood. 
Early-Life Famine Exposure  4,16  Exposure to famine during childhood  55.4% prevalence of Liver Steatosis in men; 51.7% prevalence in women; increased risk of liver cirrhosis  Childhood famine exposure combined with obesity leads to a 23-fold higher risk of Liver Steatosis in adulthood. 
Elevated Liver Enzymes (ALT, AST)  1,2,5  Elevated ALT levels, metabolic disturbances  Increased risk of advanced liver disease, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular complications  Elevated liver enzymes in childhood strongly predict adult Liver Steatosis and systemic complications. 
Genetic Variants (PNPLA3, TM6SF2)  6,14  Genetic predispositions combined with high BMI > 95% percentile and insulin resistance  Increased risk of adult fatty liver and advanced fibrosis  Genetic markers are critical predictors of Liver Steatosis progression in individuals with metabolic disturbances. 
Dietary and Lifestyle Factors &Processed Food Consumption  20  Low physical activity levels, high sedentary behavior, and unhealthy dietary habits.High intake of processed foods rich in sugars, unhealthy fats, and additives.  Reduced fatty liver indices; lower risk of MASLD-related metabolic diseases (e.g., type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease). Inappropriate diet consumption leads to increased risk of MASLD and systemic complications, including metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease.  Healthy lifestyle during adolescence, including reduced sedentary behavior and improved dietary habits, inversely associated with fatty liver indices in adulthood. Excessive consumption of processed foods exacerbates metabolic disturbances, contributing to MASLD progression and systemic effects. 
Sugary Beverage Consumption  22  High intake of free sugars and sugary beverages  Weak positive association with severe hepatic steatosis at 24 years  High sugar intake mediated by BMI increases risk of liver-related complications in adulthood. 
Childhood Socioeconomic Disadvantage  45  Low socioeconomic status, parental education levels, and income  Increased prevalence of fatty liver in adulthood  Socioeconomic disadvantage during childhood is positively correlated with the development of MASLD in adulthood. 
Physical Activity Levels  11  Levels of vigorous-intensity physical activity (VPA) and moderate-intensity physical activity (MPA)  Lower risk of Liver Steatosis in middle age associated with sustained higher levels of VPA; no significant association for MPA  Sustained vigorous physical activity from young adulthood to middle age reduces the risk of Liver Steatosis. 
BMI Gain Between Ages 7–13  26  Excessive BMI gain during ages 7–13.  Increased susceptibility to Liver Steatosis and severe stages (e.g., cirrhosis) in adulthood.  BMI gain during this critical developmental period independently predicts adult Liver Steatosis. 
Maternal Pre-Pregnancy BMI  21  Maternal Pre-Pregnancy BMI.  Increased risk of Liver Steatosis-related complications in adulthood.  Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI strongly influences offspring Liver Steatosis risk. 

MASLD: Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease, BMI: Body Mass Index, ALT: Alanine Aminotransferase, AST: Aspartate Aminotransferase, VPA: Vigorous Physical Activity, MPA: Moderate Physical Activity

2.6Quality assessment

The quality of the included studies was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) [58], a validated tool for evaluating non-randomized studies. The NOS evaluates studies based on three domains: selection of participants, comparability of study groups, and assessment of outcomes. Studies scoring ≥7 was considered high quality.

The protocol for the study selection process is delineated in the PRISMA flow diagram in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1.

PRISMA flow diagram illustrating the study selection process.

3Results

A total of 26 studies were included in this review, comprising longitudinal cohort studies, cross-sectional analyses, and prospective studies. The studies are detailed in Table 1, Parts 1, 2, and 3. In order to enhance clarity and usability, a separate table (Table 2) was constructed to summarize childhood risk factors that predict adult outcomes. The findings presented in the tables, highlight the significant burden of MASLD, MAFLD, or NAFLD across various age groups as well as its long-term health implications. The sample sizes ranged from 44 to over 244,000 participants with follow-up durations of 4.5 years to 39 years. The studies were conducted across diverse geographic regions, including the United States, Finland, China, Sweden, and Mexico. Diagnostic methods varied, with ultrasound imaging, liver biopsy, and transient elastography being the most common. Biomarkers such as ALT, AST, HOMA-IR scores, and genetic variants (PNPLA3, TM6SF2) were frequently assessed to evaluate MASLD prevalence, severity, and progression. The studies primarily focused on the systemic effects of MASLD, MAFLD, or NAFLD, including metabolic, cardiovascular, and hepatic complications, as well as its persistence into adulthood. Despite variations in study types, geographic areas, populations, and healthcare systems, the prevalence of this condition and the biological systems it affects remain strikingly similar across the studies, with consistently concerning long-term health consequences.

3.1Objectives3.1.1Objective 1: assess the prevalence and severity of MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD), in pediatric and adult populations

The prevalence of liver steatosis in children and adolescents varies widely, with rates ranging from 8% in the general population to 36.1% among obese adolescents [47,49,59]. Studies show that the condition often persists into adulthood, with prevalence increasing as individuals age. Table 1 part 1, provides detailed prevalence data across studies. For instance, study ID 147 reported a 30.5% prevalence among obese children aged 6–18 years in China, determined using NAFLD diagnostic criteria, while study ID 559 in Finland found a 40.5% prevalence of liver steatosis in obese adults using MASLD diagnostic criteria. Similarly, study ID 649, also conducted in Finland, reported a lower prevalence of 19% in adults, despite identifying similar childhood predictors such as elevated, insulin resistance, and genetic predispositions.

Longitudinal studies consistently demonstrate the persistence of liver steatosis from childhood into adulthood. For instance, study ID1260 from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) monitored 1,657 participants over 15 years, reporting a 20.7% prevalence of this condition at age 24, with body fat percentage in childhood identified as a significant predictor. Similarly, study ID 2632 followed 244,464 school-aged children in Denmark for up to 80 years, identifying 2,370 cases diagnosed in adulthood.

The variations in prevalence across studies appear to be influenced by differences in population characteristics and the diagnostic methods employed. For instance, studies such as ID 137(China) and ID 559 (Finland) relied on ultrasound imaging, reporting prevalence rates of 30.5% and 40.5%, respectively, among obese pediatric populations. In contrast, Study ID 361 (Sweden) utilized histopathology to confirm liver steatosis diagnosis, while Study ID 1054 (Netherlands) employed advanced imaging techniques such as MRI and ELF tests, demonstrating a 6% prevalence of advanced fibrosis and 47% prevalence of liver steatosis over a 10-year follow-up period.

3.1.2Objective 2: evaluate long-term health outcomes in adults with a history of childhood MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD)

Long-term health outcomes in adults with a history of childhood MASLD are influenced by the persistence of the condition, as demonstrated by longitudinal studies. As an illustration, Study ID 7 [62] conducted in Israel revealed that adolescents diagnosed with MASLD were three times more likely to develop type 2 diabetes in young adulthood. Study ID 9 [63] from the United States further demonstrated that adolescents and young adults with liver steatosis had an 18.5% prevalence of the condition over a nine-year follow-up period, with obesity and metabolic syndrome identified as key factors in disease progression. A similar finding was reported in Study ID 2332 from Sweden, which indicated that overweight male adolescents aged 18–20 exhibited a significantly higher risk of developing severe liver disease and type 2 diabetes over a 39-year follow-up period.

Cardiovascular disease is another major long-term outcome associated with this condition at childhood. Study ID 3 [61] from Sweden reported significantly higher rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), such as heart disease and heart failure, due to persistent metabolic abnormalities like insulin resistance, high cholesterol, and elevated blood pressure.

This aligns with findings from Study ID 8 [8] in Finland, which identified elevated levels of inflammatory markers in children with liver steatosis were linked to a higher risk of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disorders in adulthood.

Hepatic complications are particularly concerning, as liver steatosis often progresses to advanced liver conditions. Study ID 1054 from the Netherlands found that 6% of adolescents with severe obesity (classified according to cut-offs for adult BMI) developed advanced fibrosis over a 10-year follow-up period. Study ID 23 [52] from Sweden demonstrated that elevated BMI in late adolescence predicted severe liver disease, including cirrhosis and liver-related mortality, later in life. Furthermore, Study from Sweden ID 13 [7] identified significant hepatic fibrosis as the strongest independent predictor of liver-related mortality, with pediatric patients exhibiting a 5.26-fold higher mortality risk in cases of simple steatosis and an 11.51-fold higher risk in cases of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).

Maternal obesity and early-life factors were also identified as significant contributors to disease progression. For example, Study ID 6 [49] reported that small for gestational age is a childhood risk factor on the development of liver steatosis. Study ID 15 [64] from Mexico reported a 17% prevalence of the condition in young adulthood among offspring of obese mothers, while Study ID 4 [65] and Study ID 16 [66]from China highlighted the impact of early-life famine exposure, with liver steatosis prevalence rates exceeding 50% in adults exposed to famine during childhood.

Finally, mortality risks associated with the condition are substantial. A study from Sweden ID 13 [61] found that pediatric patients with liver steatosis had a significantly higher risk of liver-related mortality, with simple steatosis increasing the risk by 5.26 times and MASH by 11.51 times. Study ID 25 [10] from the United States further demonstrated that condition significantly increases the risk of mortality, cardiovascular disease, and cancer, with individuals exhibiting a higher prevalence of systemic complications over a follow-up period of 22.4 years.

3.1.3Objective 3: examine the role of early biomarkers and predictive indicators in the progression of MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD) from childhood to adulthood

Early biomarkers and predictive indicators, including liver enzyme levels (ALT, AST), measures of insulin resistance, and genetic variants, play a crucial role in understanding and forecasting the progression of chronic liver disease. However, ALT is more appropriately considered a biomarker of chronic liver disease rather than MASLD, as its diagnostic performance for MASH is limited [44]. Study ID 6 [49] (Finland) emphasized the relevance of insulin resistance, and genetic predispositions (e.g., PNPLA3 and TM6SF2 variants) as critical predictors of disease progression. When combined with a high body mass index (BMI) (defined as being above the 95th percentile for age and sex, based on standardized growth charts), these biomarkers significantly increase the risk of developing MASLD in adulthood. Study ID13 [47] further identified elevated fasting insulin levels and HOMA-IR scores as key indicators of liver steatosis progression.

Advanced imaging techniques, such as transient elastography and CAP scores, provide non-invasive methods for assessing liver steatosis and fibrosis. For instance, study ID 10 [65] utilized MRI and ELF tests to demonstrate that adolescents with severe obesity developed advanced fibrosis over a 10-year follow-up period. These imaging tools complement traditional biomarkers, such as ALT and AST, which are widely used for assessing chronic liver disease but exhibit poor diagnostic performance for MASH.

Lifestyle and environmental factors also serve as predictive indicators for MASLD progression. Study ID 8 [8] highlighted that childhood exposure to passive smoking, validated by serum cotinine levels (range: 0.2–15 ng/mL), was associated with an increased risk of hepatic disease in adulthood. Childhood exposure to parental smoking was determined by whether either parent smoked daily for at least one year between 1980 and 1983. Although the study did not capture the exact number of hours children were exposed to cigarette smoke, exposure was validated using serum cotinine levels, a reliable indicator. Adulthood passive smoking was assessed through self-reported daily exposure to cigarette smoke for at least one hour in various settings, such as at home, work, or other environments.

Physical activity was measured using self-reported questionnaires in Study ID 11 [67], which collected data on activity levels at multiple time points (e.g., 1985, 1992, and 2010). Vigorous activity was defined as activities requiring ≥6 metabolic equivalents (METs), such as running, swimming, or cycling, while moderate physical activity (MPA) was defined as activities requiring 3–6 METs, such as walking or light jogging. Sustained vigorous physical activity (VPA) was inversely associated with fatty liver indices in adulthood, while MPA did not show a significant association.

The excessive consumption of processed foods and sugary beverages has shown to exacerbate metabolic disturbances, contributing to the condition’s progression and systemic effects, as noted in Study ID [68] and Study ID 22 [69]. Socioeconomic factors, such as childhood disadvantage, parental education levels, and income, also play a critical role in influencing the risk of developing liver steatosis in adulthood, as demonstrated in Study ID 4 [65]. Additionally, childhood BMI, insulin levels, and parental socioeconomic status are significant predictors of adult liver disease as indicated by Study IDS 6 [49] and 14 [70]. Expanding on environmental factors, Study ID 4 [65] underscores the heightened risk of liver disease in women due to early-life famine exposure combined with adulthood obesity. In addition, Study ID 1771 provides further evidence that overweight or obesity to be a strong risk factor for increased severity of liver steatosis in offspring, highlighting the intergenerational impact of liver-related health risks.

Longitudinal studies have provided robust evidence of the predictive value of early biomarkers and indicators.​ Childhood Obesity (BMI > 95%) as a risk factor, with studies such as Study IDs 1 [47], 2 [41], 5 [59], 13 [47], or 23 [52] highlighting how high BMI > 95% percentile is a predictor of adult liver steatosis. Overweight/obese children are twice as likely to develop MASLD as adults, with the risk mitigated by achieving normal BMI in adulthood. On the other hand, high BMI > 95% percentile, insulin resistance, and genetic variants are reported to be predictors of adult fatty liver disease. Study ID 23 [52] revealed that overweight in late adolescence predicted the development of severe liver disease later in life, with a 39-year follow-up study of 44,248 male adolescents showing a significantly higher risk of cirrhosis and liver-related mortality in adulthood. Excessive BMI gain during childhood has been identified as a critical predictive indicator for adult MASLD outcomes. For instance, study ID 26 [32] demonstrated that BMI gain between ages 7–13 independently predicted adult liver steatosis outcomes, including severe liver disease and cirrhosis. ​Complementing, Study ID 12 [60] found that children with higher total body fat and trunk fat percentages are at greater risk of developing liver steatosis by age 24.

3.1.4Objective 4: evaluate the interconnected nature of systemic metabolic, cardiovascular, and liver-related complications of MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD)

MASLD is a multisystem condition with interconnected metabolic, cardiovascular, and liver-related complications that begin in childhood and persist into adulthood, often intensifying over time [58]. These metabolic disturbances not only contribute to the progression of the condition but also increase the risk of type 2 diabetes and other endocrine disorders in adulthood, as highlighted by ​Study ID 6 [49]. The systemic inflammation driven by obesity, accelerates endothelial dysfunction, which worsens liver fibrosis and cardiovascular outcomes, as noted by Study ID 8 [8], Study ID 3 [61] and Study ID 13 [7].

3.1.5Objective 5: address challenges in transitioning MASLD (formerly NAFLD/MAFLD) patients from pediatric to adult care

The transition from pediatric to adult care for patients with MASLD is characterized by systemic barriers that hinder continuity of care. Study ID 26 [32], which followed 244,464 school-aged children in Denmark, reported a discontinuity rate of 23% among young adults, indicating significant gaps in follow-up care during this transitional period. Fragmented medical records were identified as a contributing factor, as noted in Study ID 24 [72], where reliance on pediatric records often failed to capture essential data on lifestyle changes and long-term health outcomes.

Monitoring changes during adolescence is essential for comprehensively understanding long-term health outcomes. Specifically, evidence from Study ID 23 [52] highlights that excessive BMI gain during childhood serves as a significant independent predictor of severe liver disease in adulthood. Additionally, tracking socioeconomic factors during adolescence is vital, as these determinants play a critical role in shaping care transition outcomes and influencing long-term health trajectories. For instance, findings from Study ID 8 [8] underscore that financial constraints and restricted access to health insurance represent substantial barriers to effective follow-up care for young adults. Similarly, Study ID 4 [59] revealed a significant association between childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and the prevalence of liver steatosis in adulthood, highlighting the profound impact of systemic inequities on long-term health outcomes. The absence of detailed information regarding psychosocial factors was also noted, with Study ID 24 [73] emphasizing the critical role of documenting conditions such as anxiety and depression in shaping patient engagement and adherence to ongoing care. Medical records frequently lack detailed information about the parents, adolescence, or childhood. This missing information could facilitate the establishment of links, for instance, between the intergenerational impact of maternal overweight or obesity, as indicated by Study ID 15 [64]. Finally, the transition from pediatric to adult care is further hindered by inherent disparities in care models. While pediatric care predominantly adopts a family-centered approach, adult care systems emphasize individual autonomy and responsibility. Study ID 24 [73] identified this paradigm shift as a critical factor contributing to diminished patient engagement during the transitional phase.

3.1.6Summarize childhood risk factors predictive of adult outcomes

In addition to the detailed findings presented in Table 1, Table 2 provides a focused summary of key childhood risk factors that are predictive of adult liver steatosis outcomes. These risk factors include childhood obesity, maternal obesity, passive smoking, early-life famine exposure, elevated liver enzymes, genetic variants, dietary habits, and socioeconomic disadvantage. Each risk factor is linked to specific adult health outcomes, such as increased prevalence of liver steatosis, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and liver-related complications. For instance, childhood obesity (BMI > 95th percentile) is strongly associated with a higher likelihood of developing MASLD in adulthood, with the risk mitigated by achieving a normal BMI later in life. Similarly, maternal obesity during pregnancy has been shown to significantly increase the severity of this condition in offspring, highlighting the intergenerational impact of metabolic dysfunction. Passive smoking during childhood, validated by serum cotinine levels, is another critical predictor, as it is associated with an increased risk of advanced fibrosis, cirrhosis, and cardiovascular complications in adulthood. However, it is important to note that the prevalence data cited in these tables were derived from studies using varying diagnostic criteria, including NAFLD, MAFLD, and MASLD. This variability may influence the reported associations between childhood obesity and adult MASLD outcomes.

4Discussion

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) poses a substantial public health concern, given its systemic impact and documented progression from childhood to adulthood. Evidence from longitudinal studies has demonstrated that childhood obesity significantly increases the likelihood of developing metabolic syndrome (MASLD) in adulthood. The systemic nature of this condition, driven by metabolic dysfunction and chronic inflammation, aligns with prior research connecting childhood obesity and metabolic syndrome to adult health risks [74–77]. This review underscores the significance of recognizing MASLD during critical developmental stages by synthesizing evidence on the long-term consequences of childhood obesity and metabolic syndrome. Early intervention targeting these risk factors can mitigate the cascading effects of disease on cardiovascular and hepatic health, ultimately reducing its long-term burden [78].

4.1Challenges in preventive education

The findings from this study highlight significant challenges in early intervention for MASLD. The subclinical nature of metabolic syndrome in its early stages, in conjunction with societal normalization of obesity, significantly contributes to its underdiagnosis and delays in timely intervention. This issue is further exacerbated by deficiencies in public health education and prevalent misconceptions that erroneously attribute fatty liver disease solely to alcohol consumption. Consequently, healthcare providers, parents, and patients frequently possess an incomplete understanding of the substantial systemic health risks associated with childhood obesity and its connection to MASLD. Public health campaigns must prioritize raising awareness about MASLD and its systemic effects, addressing societal normalization of childhood obesity, and promoting equitable access to healthy food and physical activity programs [49,71,79].

To address these challenges, multimodal communication strategies should be employed to disseminate accurate information and engage diverse audiences effectively [80,81]. This encompasses the utilization of digital platforms, social media, community outreach programs, and educational initiatives customized to diverse age groups and cultural contexts. The utilization of these instruments can facilitate the overcoming of obstacles to awareness and ensure that key stakeholders, including parents, educators, and healthcare providers, are equipped with the knowledge and resources necessary to combat MASLD.

4.2Importance of early detection and advanced diagnostic tools

Early detection is critical for effective MASLD management, as the disease often progresses asymptomatically. Biomarkers and predictive indicators, such as elevated liver enzymes (ALT, AST), insulin resistance (HOMA-IR scores), and genetic variants (PNPLA3, TM6SF2), are essential for forecasting the progression of MASLD from childhood to adulthood [49,71]. However, relying solely on these established predictors has limitations, as MASLD can progress even in individuals with normal enzyme levels [45] ALT, for instance, is more appropriately considered a biomarker of chronic liver disease rather than MASLD, as its diagnostic performance for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is limited [38].

Emerging biomarkers, such as gene-based signature classifiers like Aldo-Keto Reductase Family 1 Member B10 (AKR1B10) and Secreted Phosphoprotein 1 (SPP1), show promise in predicting disease progression and assessing changes in the immune microenvironment [82]. Advanced imaging techniques, such as transient elastography and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) scores, offer promising non-invasive alternatives for detecting liver steatosis and fibrosis, addressing gaps in traditional diagnostic methods like ultrasound, which may underestimate disease prevalence [55]. Healthcare providers should prioritize early screening for MASLD in children with obesity, elevated liver enzymes, or metabolic syndrome. Incorporating these advanced diagnostic tools into routine pediatric care could significantly enhance early detection and management [1,52].

4.3Socioeconomic and dietary factors

A comprehensive analysis of MASLD highlights varying prevalence rates across different population groups.​ Certain ethnic groups, such as Hispanic individuals, are disproportionately affected due to genetic variants [1,83,84]. Socioeconomic disparities and cultural eating habits exacerbate these differences, while early-life nutrition significantly influences offspring risk [66,71]. Emerging evidence underscores the pivotal role of dietary composition in shaping liver health, with diets high in saturated fats and refined sugars identified as key drivers of liver steatosis [85].

The widespread consumption of ultra-processed foods, characterized by excessive caloric density, artificial additives, and minimal nutritional value, has been strongly associated with an increased risk of liver disease [86]. This trend is particularly alarming for pediatric populations, who are disproportionately vulnerable to the harmful effects of these substances. Compelling experimental evidence has illuminated the harmful impact of specific food additives on liver health. Artificial sweeteners, such as saccharin and aspartame, have been implicated in the development of hepatic conditions, including transaminitis and steatosis, in preclinical rodent models [87,88]. Similarly, emulsifiers like polysorbate 80 have demonstrated hepatotoxic properties, contributing to liver degradation and cellular toxicity in animal studies [89,90]. These findings raise critical questions about the long-term safety of such additives, particularly given their widespread use in processed foods.

In stark contrast, adherence to nutrient-rich dietary patterns has emerged as a powerful strategy to counteract the progression of MASLD. The Mediterranean diet, renowned for its emphasis on whole grains, fresh fruits, vegetables, and unsaturated fats, has been consistently associated with a significant reduction in the incidence and severity of MASLD [89,90]. This dietary approach not only promotes liver health but also offers broader metabolic benefits, underscoring its potential as a cornerstone of preventive healthcare.

4.4Emerging therapies and lifestyle interventions

Exploring new therapies to address the challenges posed by MASLD should include focusing on the critical role of the gut-liver axis in its pathogenesis, as gut dysbiosis significantly contributes to systemic inflammation and hepatic fat accumulation [91,92]. Microbiome-targeted therapies, such as probiotics and prebiotics, are emerging as potential strategies to mitigate disease progression, particularly in pediatric populations [93,94]. These interventions could complement existing lifestyle and pharmacological approaches. Recent pharmacological advancements, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists and dual GLP-1/GIP agonists, have shown efficacy in improving insulin sensitivity and reducing liver fat [95,96].

Lifestyle and environmental factors, including physical activity, dietary habits, and exposure to passive smoking, are critical determinants of MASLD risk. Sustained vigorous physical activity [8] has been associated with reduced disease progression, while processed food consumption and passive smoking exacerbate the condition [33,68]. Enhanced screening for liver disease in pediatric patients exposed to tobacco smoke, regardless of their weight status or obesity classification, is essential [97,98].

4.5Future directions and global collaboration

The findings of this study have significant implications for healthcare practice, policy, and research. Future research should prioritize the validation of novel biomarkers, such as AKR1B10 and SPP1 [44], exploring pharmacological treatments for pediatric MASLD [95,96], and developing personalized prevention strategies that account for genetic predispositions and lifestyle factors. Additionally, structured transition programs, enhanced patient education, and leveraging technology to reduce fragmented medical records and improve follow-up rates should be explored [72,99].

Global collaboration is essential to address geographic and ethnic disparities in MASLD prevalence and outcomes [61]. International studies can provide valuable insights into unique risk factors and challenges faced by different populations, enabling the development of culturally tailored interventions and integrated care models. These efforts can improve long-term health outcomes and reduce societal and economic burdens associated with MASLD.

One significant gap in the existing research is the absence of longitudinal studies tracking the progression of MASLD from childhood to adulthood and its potential links to other chronic conditions, such as chronic kidney disease [24]. Current evidence indicates that MASLD may contribute to kidney dysfunction through overlapping mechanisms such as insulin resistance, systemic inflammation, and metabolic dysregulation. Addressing this gap will require large-scale, long-term studies that examine the interplay between MASLD and other systemic diseases, as well as the impact of early-life interventions on disease trajectories.

4.6Evidence-based algorithms for MASLD management in pediatric populations

Building on the findings of this review, we propose evidence-based algorithms for the management of MASLD in pediatric populations (see Table 3). These algorithms are designed to translate the research evidence presented into actionable clinical pathways, incorporating validated biomarkers, advanced imaging techniques, and personalized interventions to optimize early detection, prevention, and treatment outcomes.

Table 3.

Evidence-based algorithms for MASLD.

Algorithm for early identification and diagnosis of MASLD       
Step  Details  Supporting Evidence  Limitations 
Screening for Risk Factors  Identify children with risk factors such as: - Childhood obesity (BMI > 95th percentile) - Elevated liver enzymes (ALT, AST) - Genetic predispositions (PNPLA3, TM6SF2) - Metabolic syndrome - Maternal obesity - Passive smoking - Early-life famine exposure  Study IDs: 1, 2, 5, 26, 17, 15, 8, 4, 16, 43, 6, 14  ALT has limited diagnostic performance for MASH; may miss MASLD cases with normal enzyme levels. 
Diagnostic Methods  Use non-invasive imaging and biomarkers: - Imaging: Transient elastography, CAP scores, ELF tests - Biomarkers: ALT, AST, HOMA-IR scores, fasting insulin levels, CRP  Study IDs: 10, 18, 21, 1, 2, 5, 49, 51  Imaging methods like ultrasound may underestimate disease prevalence compared to advanced techniques. 
Addressing Societal Normalization  - Educate healthcare providers, parents, and children about the systemic risks of childhood obesity and MASLD. - Counter misconceptions that fatty liver disease is solely linked to alcohol consumption. - Implement multimodal education strategies to improve awareness of MASLD and its systemic effects.  Study IDs: 34, 35, 36, 99  Societal normalization of obesity contributes to underdiagnosis and delayed intervention. 
Algorithm for management and lifestyle interventions       
Step  Details  Supporting Evidence  Limitations 
Dietary Changes  - Reduce processed foods, sugary beverages, and junk food. - Promote Mediterranean diet (whole grains, fruits, vegetables, healthy fats).  Study IDs: 20, 22, 83, 88, 89, 90  Limited research on the long-term impact of dietary changes during adolescence. 
Physical Activity  - Encourage sustained vigorous physical activity (VPA). - VPA reduces fatty liver indices and improves metabolic health.  Study IDs: 11, 67  Limited evidence on the long-term efficacy of physical activity interventions during adolescence. 
Patient Education  - Use multimodal education strategies to improve awareness of MASLD and lifestyle changes. - Address societal normalization of childhood obesity and its impact on MASLD underdiagnosis.  Study IDs: 34, 35, 36, 99  Societal normalization of obesity contributes to underdiagnosis and delayed intervention. 
Pharmacological Interventions  - Consider GLP-1 receptor agonists and dual GLP-1/GIP agonists for severe MASLD cases.  Study IDs: 95, 96  Emerging pharmacological treatments require further validation for pediatric populations. 
Algorithm for transitioning care from pediatric to adult healthcare systems       
Step  Details  Supporting Evidence  Limitations 
Structured Transition Programs  - Develop programs to ensure continuity of care during pediatric-to-adult transition.  Study IDs: 30, 31, 32, 102  Fragmented medical records hinder continuity of care during transition. 
Integrated Care Models  - Address systemic barriers, including fragmented records, socioeconomic disparities, and psychosocial factors.  Study IDs: 45, 73  Socioeconomic disparities and psychosocial factors are underexplored. 
Addressing Societal Normalization  - Educate healthcare providers, families, and patients about the systemic risks of childhood obesity and MASLD. - Counter societal normalization of obesity and its impact on care transition. - Implement multimodal education strategies to improve awareness of MASLD and its systemic effects.  Study IDs: 34, 35, 36, 99  Societal normalization of obesity contributes to gaps in care transition. 
Monitoring and Follow-Up  - Track BMI, metabolic syndrome, and lifestyle factors during adolescence to predict long-term health outcomes.  Study IDs: 24, 26, 45, 88  Limited research on the impact of monitoring lifestyle modifications during adolescence. 
4.6.1Disclaimer

The recommendations and algorithms provided in the following tables are based on the evidence synthesized in this systematic review and the current understanding of MASLD. While these strategies are supported by existing studies, further research is required to validate their long-term efficacy and determine whether they represent the best approaches for managing MASLD. The authors emphasize the need for ongoing studies to refine these recommendations and address existing gaps in knowledge.

4.6.2Tables description

The following tables summarize evidence-based algorithms for the early identification, management, and care transition of MASLD in pediatric populations. These algorithms are derived from the systematic review and include recommendations based on the findings.

4.7Limitations of this study

The included studies varied significantly in diagnostic methods, follow-up durations, and study populations, making it challenging to compare findings and synthesize conclusions. For instance, reliance on ultrasound imaging may underestimate disease prevalence, while liver biopsy introduces sampling errors. Discontinuity in medical records during the transition from pediatric to adult care restricts the ability to track long-term outcomes comprehensively. This fragmentation limits the understanding of MASLD progression and the effectiveness of interventions. Many longitudinal studies reported low response rates, particularly among young adults transitioning to adult care systems. This reduces the generalizability of findings and hampers efforts to draw robust conclusions. While early biomarkers such as elevated liver enzymes (ALT, AST), insulin resistance, and genetic predispositions (e.g., PNPLA3, TM6SF2) are recognized, their long-term predictive value remains underexplored. Emerging tools like Liver Stiffness Measurements (LSM) and Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) scores require further validation. There is limited representation of diverse populations that reduces the applicability of findings to global cohorts.

Most studies focused on homogeneous populations, which may not reflect the prevalence and progression of MASLD in other ethnic or geographic groups. The diagnostic methods used to assess this condition varied widely across studies, ranging from ultrasound imaging and liver biopsy to transient elastography and CAP scores. This variability complicates efforts to establish standardized diagnostic criteria. Although lifestyle factors such as diet, physical activity, and passive although are known to influence MASLD progression, many studies failed to comprehensively account for these variables. There is also limited research on how lifestyle modifications during adolescence can mitigate long-term risks. While MASLD is now widely acknowledged as a complex disease affecting multiple systems in the body [100], the intricate connections between its systemic impacts remain insufficiently understood. For example, the interaction between cardiovascular complications and liver disease progression is not well understood. Few large-scale studies have evaluated the efficacy of lifestyle interventions, such as regular exercise and dietary changes, in diverse populations.Additionally, the role of pharmacological treatments in pediatrics are underexplored [38].

Despite these limitations, this systematic review provides valuable insights into the long-term systemic effects of MASLD in children and its progression into adulthood. By synthesizing findings from diverse studies, it highlights critical risk factors, predictive biomarkers, and the importance of early intervention. The review underscores the need for integrated care models, public health education, and targeted lifestyle interventions, offering a foundation for future research and improved management strategies. It serves as a crucial step toward addressing gaps in awareness, research, and clinical practice, ultimately contributing to better health outcomes and reduced societal and economic burdens associated with MASLD.

5Conclusions

The studies included in this review, provided a critical framework for addressing liver steatosis, emphasizing the importance of early detection, education, and prevention. Lifestyle interventions, early screening, and integrated care models remain the foundation of its management, particularly during the transition from pediatric to adult care. However, significant gaps in research persist, including fragmented healthcare systems, underexplored biomarkers, and limited follow-up data. In addition there is a lack of studies considering the potential associations between this condition and other chronic diseases, such as chronic kidney disease.

A comprehensive evaluation of the impact of food additives, hormones, and preservatives on human health is imperative to understand their long-term effects. Future research should prioritize longitudinal studies, culturally tailored lifestyle interventions, and integrated care approaches. Additionally, the exploration of pharmacological treatments targeting metabolic dysfunction and liver fibrosis in pediatric populations could complement existing strategies and provide new avenues for managing disease progression and its systemic effects. By addressing these challenges, the healthcare community can better manage the disease, improve long-term health outcomes, and reduce societal and economic burdens.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Author contributions

BR and ML: Conducted the initial screening of titles and abstracts, extracted data, and ensured adherence to inclusion/exclusion criteria. TR and ER: Provided clinical expertise, reviewed selected articles for methodological rigor, resolved discrepancies, and contributed to the interpretation of findings. All authors: Assisted in designing the study, drafting sections of the manuscript, and critically reviewing the final document for accuracy and alignment with objectives. All authors contributed to refining the study design, identifying research gaps, and proposing actionable recommendations for future research and public health strategies.

Declaration of generative AI and AI-assisted technologies in the manuscript preparation process

During the preparation of this work, the authors used Adobe Acrobat AI Assistant in order to assist with document-related queries and tasks. After using this tool/service, the authors reviewed and edited the content as needed and take full responsibility for the content of the published article.

Declaration of interests

None.

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